
Dylan Matthews, writer at Vox.
This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations that I follow will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
IMO, it will be key for Manifold to attract public figures and organizations; this will (i) provide pre-earned credibility for these accounts as market creators (which encourages trading), and (ii) will attract the follower base of these users to Manifold as traders.
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ209 | |
2 | Ṁ45 | |
3 | Ṁ28 | |
4 | Ṁ25 | |
5 | Ṁ23 |