Will Dylan Matthews create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
24
490Ṁ4043
resolved Sep 23
Resolved
YES

Dylan Matthews, writer at Vox.

This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations that I follow will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.

To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.

IMO, it will be key for Manifold to attract public figures and organizations; this will (i) provide pre-earned credibility for these accounts as market creators (which encourages trading), and (ii) will attract the follower base of these users to Manifold as traders.

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predictedYES
predictedYES

Dylan told me this is him.

predictedYES

@Joshua Good enough for me!

I mean, he’s going to Manifest…

@TamarSpoerri good info!

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