On January 5th, the Salt Lake Tribune published a series of predictions regarding The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (aka the Mormon Church), stemming from data scientist Stephen Cranney. Like a good predictor, Cranney even provided exact percentages! Let's see whether Manifold agrees.
One of these predictions was the following:
Another sexual abuse “scandal” will erupt in the church.
"Cranney pegs that at 80% as well, “given the sheer number of local leaders in the U.S., combined with the tragic ubiquity of sexual abuse, along with the increased awareness of this problem.'"
This market preferably resolves per reporting from the Salt Lake Tribune, though I reserve the right to resolve independently as necessary.
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ182 | |
| 2 | Ṁ23 | |
| 3 | Ṁ19 | |
| 4 | Ṁ16 | |
| 5 | Ṁ11 |
I'm guessing that the market didn't uncover the AP's reporting on sexual abuse in the Mormon church published in December.
Traders please LMK if it seems I am missing anything, but strongly seems that this should resolve Yes. If I see evidence that the SL Tribune or Stephen think otherwise, I can modify the resolution after the fact.
@CarsonGale No I think that's correct. I sold some NO for that reason. Should have sold it all.