On January 5th, the Salt Lake Tribune published a series of predictions regarding The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (aka the Mormon Church), stemming from data scientist Stephen Cranney. Like a good predictor, Cranney even provided exact percentages! Let's see whether Manifold agrees.

One of these predictions was the following:

Another sexual abuse “scandal” will erupt in the church.

"Cranney pegs that at 80% as well, “given the sheer number of local leaders in the U.S., combined with the tragic ubiquity of sexual abuse, along with the increased awareness of this problem.'"

This market preferably resolves per reporting from the Salt Lake Tribune, though I reserve the right to resolve independently as necessary.