Will I be credibly accused of sexual assault or sexual harassment before 2028?
Mini
7
303
2028
3%
chance

This market works as follows:

  • If any accusation is made, I'll try to link to any relevant evidence in the comments, and anyone else can also provide any evidence they believe to be relevant.

  • After it doesn't seem like any more evidence is likely to be forthcoming, I will ask Manifold users to vote on whether they believe the accusation is credible.

  • A certain voter believes the accusation is "credible", if, after looking at the evidence, they think there's at least a 50% chance that I did sexually assault or sexually harrass someone as described in the accusation. (Each voter should use whatever definition of "sexual assault" and "sexual harrassment" they believe to be most correct.)

  • If it seems like one person may have created a bunch of accounts in order to manipulate the votes, I'll ask the Manifold admins to look into it. If they find evidence of sockpuppetting, those votes are invalid. If they don't turn up any evidence that this is happening or decline to respond, those votes still count. The same applies to someone paying other people for their votes.

  • Users with the "trustworthyish" badge count for 5x the votes of other users. (Except me; I don't get a vote at all.)

  • I'll wait until nobody has cast a new vote for at least 2 days. At that time, if at least 75% of the vote believes that the accusation is credible, then this market resolves to YES. Otherwise it remains open until there's a new accusation, or it resolves NO at the beginning of 2028.

I may change these resolution criteria in response to feedback, but only if there is no accusation currently in progress.

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(the yes position isn't in any way personal, just towards perceived baseline)

@CodeandSolder Reality is never my enemy. :)

Say what you will about his joke markets -- Isaac is the Manifoldest Manifolder