Will an AI be able to create a website via text prompt by end of 2024?
175
2kṀ50k
Jan 1
14%
chance

This market resolves positively if an AI can create a website based on a detailed request and with access to ~$100. The AI should be able to use references from other websites to understand the desired design and produce a reasonably good-looking website using any means it prefers, including third-party tools like Wix.

Update 2023-03-19: This functionality should be generally available for a positive resolution. And it should be possible to do without knowing code. E.g., I should be able to ask an AI to do this and produce a website with design skills roughly on par with something like this: https://www.glendower.com/

The website should be accessible by typing in the URL into an incognito browser.

Mostly static content and a few interactive website elements should suffice for a positive resolution.

Update 2023-04-26: For positive resolution, the AI actually needs to be able to create the website with my only input being a text prompt. That includes interfacing with any web hosting services, purchasing the domain if necessary, etc. My only input should be the text prompt before the newly-created website is ready to browse.


Update 2023-04-26: I'm fine with whatever the process is to create the website as long as it costs around or less than $100 and my only interaction with the process is to (i) establish a profile on whatever 3rd party platform is hosting the AI interface (e.g., OpenAI), and (ii) feed text inputs to an AI.


Update 2024-07-30: I had AI summarize my incremental resolution criteria provided in comments below. I agree with these additional resolution guidelines:

Incremental Resolution Criteria:

  1. Design Quality:

    • The design elements of the AI-created site must be roughly on par with the example Glendower website.

  2. Interactive Elements:

    • The site must include interactive elements such as linking to social media pages (e.g., Twitter, LinkedIn), having clickable pages (e.g., Investments, Strategy, Contact), or clickable graphics. Manually linking these elements does not count.

  3. Reference Functionality:

    • The AI must demonstrate the ability to reference other websites for design/content suggestions. If this functionality is legally blocked but clearly feasible, this requirement may be relaxed.

  4. Scope of Text Prompts:

    • Acceptable prompts should be realistic and relevant to common website creation tasks (e.g., personal websites, business sites, blogs, portfolios). Extreme or niche prompts should not be the primary basis for evaluation.

  5. Success Rate:

    • The AI's success rate should be measured across a diverse and representative set of prompts. A high success rate (e.g., 80-90%) on a majority of reasonable prompts is required for a positive resolution. Niche prompts should be used sparingly to test edge cases without disproportionately influencing the assessment.

  6. Functional Links:

    • The AI should be capable of creating functional links to companion pages (e.g., blog listing, product pages) on the landing page. This is likely necessary to satisfy the 'interactive website elements' requirement.

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