Will a self-driving taxi service be cheaper than an Uber ride (with a driver) to the same location on 12/31/24
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Oct 13, 8:21pm: In SF on a ride of my choosing.

Oct 13, 11:00pm: To be more accurate I will look at 5 potential trips in SF and take the median of the results.

  • Update 2024-18-12 (PST): The market will be resolved based on number of wins out of the 5 trips. If Waymo is cheaper on 3 or more trips, the market resolves YES, otherwise NO. (AI summary of creator comment)

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Can you further describe the 5 potential trips? Do you add upp all the prices, or do you consider it a Waymo "win" if they're cheaper 3 out of 5 times, even if by a few cents?

@HenriThunberg latter - I'll just count up the wins

I don’t think Waymo prices are that informative about their operating cost. The value of operating the current Waymo rides is driven in a large (but not exclusive) part by the testing info/feedback it provides, both directly for improving the service and also for proving to regulators that it’s safe. The long-term prize is a multi-trillion-dollar market, so a few (tens of) million bucks a month on cars is relatively small. My guess is they are pegging prices to be in the neighborhood of Uber regardless of actual cost. So this market is really a bet on Waymo’s pricing strategy for maintaining positive consumer experience, and mostly not a bet on how advanced the technology is.

Recently, it's depended a lot on the time for me: waymos have been cheaper at around noon, and more expensive at most other hours

@AndrewG I hadn't realized it was ever price competitive yet - that is good to hear!

Can confirm that I’ve taken a ride where Waymo was cheaper than both Uber and Lyft, and had a shorter wait time too. But that was the exception. Usually it’s a 10-20% premium on Uber.

Is this the before tip cost?

Yes

FYI, riders only tip on 15-30% of Uber rides. So probably <2% of revenue. Empirically it’s not really “part” of the price like it is for restaurants service.

The future market for self-driving taxis depends greatly on the public attitude towards it as there is still a big room for improving vehicle technology and safety regulations. Based on the latest news and developments in the field of autonomous vehicles, we can see there is a speed increase in market penetration of self-driving taxis with a market size of $158.31 billion in 2023 and a prediction of $2353.93 billion by 2032. This will greatly result in reduced congestion once it passes a certain threshold at some point in 2024, which will definitely bring down the cost of self-driving taxis due to greater energy efficiency and no labor costs.

https://www.precedenceresearch.com/autonomous-vehicle-market#:~:text=The%20global%20autonomous%20vehicle%20market,USD%2036.4%20billion%20in%202022.

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