Will a self-driving taxi service be cheaper than an Uber ride (with a driver) to the same location on 12/31/24

Technology Self-Driving Vehicles Carson's Important Markets

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2025

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Oct 13, 8:21pm: In SF on a ride of my choosing.

Oct 13, 11:00pm: To be more accurate I will look at 5 potential trips in SF and take the median of the results.

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I don’t think Waymo prices are that informative about their operating cost. The value of operating the current Waymo rides is driven in a large (but not exclusive) part by the testing info/feedback it provides, both directly for improving the service and also for proving to regulators that it’s safe. The long-term prize is a multi-trillion-dollar market, so a few (tens of) million bucks a month on cars is relatively small. My guess is they are pegging prices to be in the neighborhood of Uber regardless of actual cost. So this market is really a bet on Waymo’s pricing strategy for maintaining positive consumer experience, and mostly not a bet on how advanced the technology is.

https://manifold.markets/RutgerDeMaeyer/in-what-year-will-teslas-robotaxi-b?r=UnV0Z2VyRGVNYWV5ZXI

Recently, it's depended a lot on the time for me: waymos have been cheaper at around noon, and more expensive at most other hours

@AndrewG I hadn't realized it was ever price competitive yet - that is good to hear!

Can confirm that I’ve taken a ride where Waymo was cheaper than both Uber and Lyft, and had a shorter wait time too. But that was the exception. Usually it’s a 10-20% premium on Uber.

Is this the before tip cost?

Yes

FYI, riders only tip on 15-30% of Uber rides. So probably <2% of revenue. Empirically it’s not really “part” of the price like it is for restaurants service.

The future market for self-driving taxis depends greatly on the public attitude towards it as there is still a big room for improving vehicle technology and safety regulations. Based on the latest news and developments in the field of autonomous vehicles, we can see there is a speed increase in market penetration of self-driving taxis with a market size of $158.31 billion in 2023 and a prediction of $2353.93 billion by 2032. This will greatly result in reduced congestion once it passes a certain threshold at some point in 2024, which will definitely bring down the cost of self-driving taxis due to greater energy efficiency and no labor costs.

https://www.precedenceresearch.com/autonomous-vehicle-market#:~:text=The%20global%20autonomous%20vehicle%20market,USD%2036.4%20billion%20in%202022.

Autonomous Vehicle Market Size to Hit USD 2,353.93 BN by 2032

The autonomous vehicle market size was estimated USD 121.78 billion in 2022 and is projected to hit around USD 2,353.93 billion by 2032, growing at a CAGR of 35%.