On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.
One of these predictions was the following:
“We will see the impact of the sweeping industrial policy enacted in 2022 (the Inflation Reduction Act, the infrastructure bill, the CHIPS Act) start to materialize. By Q1 2023 a lot of the details of how the legislation will be implemented will be worked out, and companies that are manufacturing clean technologies, selling to the U.S. government, and/or serving critical supply chains will get a big boost. Between persistently high global energy prices and the bills’ incentives, there will be an inflection point in the ‘electrification of everything,’ which will create huge opportunities for new entrants to become the iconic companies of tomorrow—we will have many more Teslas created in the next decade.” —Monica Varman, partner, G2 Venture Partners
I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as "n/a".
Any clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date:
[TBU]
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ3 | |
| 2 | Ṁ0 | |
| 3 | Ṁ0 | |
| 4 | Ṁ0 |
I'm planning on resolving this to 70%. It seems that yes, many of the implementation details were worked out in Q1 2023. And yes, the policy change provided a big boost to clean tech manufacturers.
But additional clarificatory statements were released in June and later on, implying there was still meaningful nuances that hadn't been figured out. And while cleantech manufacturers received a boost, the scale is unclear to me.
Overall, this was a highly nebulous market regardless, so welcome any trader thoughts for resolution, otherwise will resolve later tonight.