On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.
One of these predictions was the following:
“A prominent venture capitalist announces a primary campaign. This person runs as a barely-right-of-center Republican despite having previously been a prominent fundraiser for Democrats.’” —Chase Roberts, principal, Vertex Ventures
I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as "n/a".
Any clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date:
2023-10-24: The candidate must be running as a Republican
2023-10-24: The 'primary campaign' refers to the Presidential race
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Doug Burgum announced his republican primary campaign in June. He has a long history as a venture capitalist, having cofounded/ran (and is still serving in an advisory position) Arthur Capital for 8 years.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doug_Burgum
https://chat.openai.com/share/07e73c34-c8d7-4ec8-ac4c-3fbb33b2efb5
Note: I initially bet this down (against a 500 mana limit order 🙃) after reading up on Vivek, who I do not think qualifies as a VC. I was overearnest in doing so.
@RobertCousineau From a brief search I didn't see Doug listed as a prominent Democrat fundraiser, but LMK if you have seen differently.
@CarsonGale I do not see him as a prominent democratic fundraiser prior (although he does advocate for far more climate related issues than you expect from a republican, and does/has funded that).
I do not think that is required for this to resolve yes though; you made question 2 about the second half?
@RobertCousineau apologies - you're right. I forgot about the second connected market. Lmk if anyone made a poor trade based on my memory lapse and I'm happy to reimburse you.
NO traders, any reasons to not consider Doug for resolution?
@AaronKreider not entire sure about the parties, but pretty sure about the races. Nothing here limits it to presidential races. Another case of badly written rules or did they mean to allow for the 10k+ primaries that we have in the US?
Running as a 'barely-right-of-center republican' implies the candidate should be republican.
My sense is that the prediction is intended to refer to the presidential race, which tends to be the 'default' when talking about primaries to a large number of people outside of any specific state / local jurisdiction.
Vivek Ramaswamy should count as a YES resolution here. He announced his campaign in February and is described as a venture capitalist here:
https://www.cfr.org/blog/meet-vivek-ramaswamy-republican-presidential-candidate
@BrendanFinan Is he a “barely-right-of-center Republican despite having previously been a prominent fundraiser for Democrats” though?
@BrendanFinan As far as I can tell, that description is inaccurate. While he’s managed investment portfolios, I can’t find any evidence that he’s been involved in investing in early stage startups.