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MANIFOLD
In 2023, will there be the largest resurgence and boldest proposals of industrial policy since the 1950s and '60s?
9
Ṁ230Ṁ201
resolved Feb 12
Resolved
NO

On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.

One of these predictions was the following:

We’ll see the largest resurgence, and boldest proposals, of industrial policy since the 1950s and ’60s, both to meet social and economic goals and to guide the development and access to strategic technologies like semiconductors and artificial intelligence. This will be a response to the fracturing of global technology and business networks as the world’s supply chains are disrupted by war, great power competition, and climate change. Businesses that get ahead of this convergence between private and public will establish long-term resiliency and adapt quickly.” —Evan Smith, CEO and co-founder, Altana Technologies

I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as "n/a".

Any clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date:

  • [TBU]

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IRA was back in 2022, so was CHIPS, since then federally I'm not really aware of any big industrial policy that's even getting discussed, the US is too busy arguing about speakers and shutdowns.