On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.
One of these predictions was the following:
“Thanks to the rise of large language models, natural language will begin to replace GUIs as the primary human-machine interface. Using just voice or text as the input, consumers will generate code, control software apps, and create rich multimedia content.” —Talia Goldberg, partner, Bessemer Venture Partners
I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as "n/a".
Any clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date:
[TBU]
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NO, because human factors still matter no matter how sophisticated the AI. Language has never been the optimal form of communication, symbols and signs are. A traffic sign conveys information to viewers better than the sentence describing it for instance. Language is also sloppy because of double or triple meaning that needs to be specified with more language.
@BTE Exactly my point. I think this is kind of a Nintendo PowerGlove situation, where enthusiasts have not really stopped to ask "Do people actually want this??"
I think voice interfaces will exist, as they have on phones for years, but they aren't going to hit the mainstream yet.
I think UIs and voice/text commands will coexist for a while. Being able to tell your computer to do something is nice, but it’s not always more efficient than just using a GUI, and can be annoying in cases.
@ShadowyZephyr that's why the question is not replace but begin to, as in, there are signs of times to come
@NLeseul Voice interfaces are universally garbage. Siri, Alexa, all crap. Not to mention the most intrusive form of privacy violation by system designers.