In 2023, will natural language begin to replace GUIs as the primary human-machine interface?
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resolved Jan 8
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NO

On January 4th, 2023 Term Sheet, a well-known financial newsletter by Fortune (typically regarding PE/VC) posted a series of predictions regarding the calendar year 2023.

One of these predictions was the following:

“Thanks to the rise of large language models, natural language will begin to replace GUIs as the primary human-machine interface. Using just voice or text as the input, consumers will generate code, control software apps, and create rich multimedia content.” —Talia Goldberg, partner, Bessemer Venture Partners

I will not attempt to initially define all resolution criteria in this market and will instead attempt to handle any nuances/complications/data feasibility as it arises. If by end of 2023 I think it is not possible to confidently resolve this market in the spirit in which it was intended, I reserve the right to resolve as "n/a".

Any clarifications to the resolution criteria will be listed below, along with the applicable date:

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bought Ṁ1,000 of NO

At the end of the year I'm going to use my mouse to double click a chrome shortcut, navigate normally to Gmail, click my inbox, click to open an email that this market resolved, then use normal GUIs to interface with all of manifold to see the NO resolution.

predicted NO

@SneakySly Damn this comment held up. 😎

predicted NO

@SneakySly To be fair

NO, because human factors still matter no matter how sophisticated the AI. Language has never been the optimal form of communication, symbols and signs are. A traffic sign conveys information to viewers better than the sentence describing it for instance. Language is also sloppy because of double or triple meaning that needs to be specified with more language.

bought Ṁ30 of NO

@BTE Exactly my point. I think this is kind of a Nintendo PowerGlove situation, where enthusiasts have not really stopped to ask "Do people actually want this??"

I think voice interfaces will exist, as they have on phones for years, but they aren't going to hit the mainstream yet.

I think UIs and voice/text commands will coexist for a while. Being able to tell your computer to do something is nice, but it’s not always more efficient than just using a GUI, and can be annoying in cases.

predicted YES

@ShadowyZephyr that's why the question is not replace but begin to, as in, there are signs of times to come

"Begin to replace" is an awfully fluffy criteria. Voice interfaces (Kinect, Alexa) have been around for more than 10 years already, so you could make the argument that they've already "begun to replace" GUIs irrespective of any impact from LLMs.

@NLeseul Voice interfaces are universally garbage. Siri, Alexa, all crap. Not to mention the most intrusive form of privacy violation by system designers.

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