Will resolve on accounts from either (i) Meta or (ii) 3 major news publications (per my subjective judgment) that 1 billion or more unique individuals are estimated to be active in a Metaverse.
Resolves as "n/a" if the resolution criteria do not occur by close.
Related questions
What if by the time of resolution, the "metaverse" stops being seen as a coherent concept, such that it's hard to say which services do or don't count as a part of it? I'm imagining something like most social media services having some degree of optional AR or VR functionality, where it's difficult to say which services are standard social media with that stuff on the side, and which are truly "in the metaverse," if people even think in those terms at all.
1B people would be ~10% of the world pop (since world pop is expected to be 9.8B in 2050 and 11.2B in 2100). With ~50% of the world pop currently on the internet (source) assuming this doesn't change we are looking at ~20% of all internet users on the metaverse. This isn't completely implausible (e.g. social media basically took over the internet in the 2010s after it was invented), but it seems unlikely.
