To define "Widespread UBI and Metaverse Immersion", I mean the developed countries (say USA for example) population is in a virtual world most of the time, in their own world, essentially doing whatever they want with UBI.
This market resolves to YES if, by January 1st, 2035, the world (data, new sources, etc. (valid points)) indicates that both of the following conditions are met across a majority (>50%) of OECD member states (as a proxy for developed nations):
More than 50% of the adult population (18+) receives their primary income/subsistence from UBI or equivalent non-work-based government welfare programs sufficient for basic living standards.
This same supported population segment spends the majority (more than 50%) of their average daily non-sleeping, non-essential-task hours engaged within Metaverse/VR platforms (accessed via headsets, neural interfaces, or future equivalents).
Resolution will be based on consensus from major international economic reports (e.g., World Bank, IMF, OECD itself), reputable large-scale sociological studies, or aggregated government statistics from the relevant countries, etc. etc. (whatever is correct). Ambiguity or lack of clear data across a majority of OECD nations by the resolution date will result in a NO resolution.
This idea was from this video btw, of which was a great video and learned a lot from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ybX6slvj5s&embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Faistudio.google.com%2F