Will the state of New York collapse before the end of February?
87
877
1.2k
resolved Mar 1
Resolved
NO

The state of New York is starting to fall , crime is up criminals are not prosecuted Illegal migrants are flooding the streets and protest are daily. Corruption, rains free. Law abiding citizens are punished. What are the chances everything fails and the state Falls victim to its own policy? “

Clarification on 'State Collapse' for Market Resolution

In the context of the poll titled "Will the state of New York collapse before the end of February?", the term "state collapse" refers to a significant failure in the government's core functions, which would manifest in the following ways:

1. Governance Failure: The state government is unable to enforce laws consistently, maintain order, or provide basic public services to its citizens, leading to widespread chaos and lawlessness.

2. Economic Breakdown: The state's economy experiences a severe crisis, with critical financial systems failing, leading to widespread unemployment, unmanageable inflation, or a catastrophic market crash.

3. Social Unrest: There is a sustained and uncontrollable level of civil disorder, such as mass protests, riots, or violence that the government cannot quell, which significantly disrupts daily life and business operations.

4. Humanitarian Crisis: A substantial portion of the population is in dire need of basic necessities such as food, shelter, and healthcare, and the state cannot or does not provide adequate relief.

5. Loss of Legitimacy: The state government faces a severe loss of credibility and legitimacy, perhaps through rampant corruption or an inability to govern, which may lead to a power vacuum or the rise of alternate forms of governance.

For the state of New York to be considered "collapsed" by the end of February for the purposes of this market, a clear and undeniable occurrence of one or more of these conditions would need to be evident to the average observer.

Note: The term "collapse" is not used here to imply minor increases in crime, protests, or policy failures, nor does it reflect political rhetoric Instead, it is meant to capture a fundamental and catastrophic breakdown in the state's ability to function as a political and socioeconomic entity.

--- Jimy 😊

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So the end of February was a little soon , I had high hopes ! 🤷‍♂️ 🤪 I got a new one coming in the morning! It’s going to be good!!!

@CaptainHowdy I'm glad I lost this one!

@CaptainHowdy 😂😭 I really was shocked to get the notification that you'd resolved to NO, but I do think it was the correct thing to do given the metrics you outlined

@CaptainHowdy Still waiting for the new one!

The criteria says the collapse should be evident to an average observer. So I put up a bounty to collect reports from average observers: https://manifold.markets/nottelling2ccc/new-york-residents-has-your-state-c?r=bm90dGVsbGluZzJjY2M

New York as just pulled $170million in a budget cut from the state , New Yorkers are moving out of the state at record numbers 100s of protests crime out of control and cops are quitting because criminals are not being prosecuted!! Just former Presidents!

I'm not sure why people are betting this market so low when the resolution criteria are ambiguous and the creator has repeatedly emphasized how negatively they view the state of affairs in New York. There are six conditions. Only one needs to be evident. Each has phrases like "widespread chaos," "severe crisis," "uncontrollable level," "in dire need," and "severe loss of credibility and legitimacy" that can be interpreted quite loosely.

bought Ṁ10 YES

@Jacy yeah, "A substantial portion of the population is in dire need of basic necessities such as food, shelter, and healthcare, and the state cannot or does not provide adequate relief" can easily be interpreted to be true—there are a hundred thousand homeless people!

@Jacy people investing thousands into NO at 1% are making a really risky bet for pennies in payoff

@Will94fc For me, it’s about the principle.

@nottelling2ccc Like, this market should be low if we look at the question that it’s asking and how it ought to be resolved.

@nottelling2ccc That makes sense. I'm sympathetic to that principle. Personally, I favor a meta-principle that markets should reflect the actual resolution probability rather than some idealized probability. This is in part because I think problems like ambiguous criteria won't be solved through individuals moving the price away from the resolution-based ideal price, and such trades systematically move money away from otherwise-rational traders. As Abraham Lincoln famously said,

Don't hate the player, hate the game.

Note: The term "collapse" is not used here to imply minor increases in crime, protests, or policy failures, nor does it reflect political rhetoric such as "go woke, go broke." Instead, it is meant to capture a fundamental and catastrophic breakdown in the state's ability to function as a political and socioeconomic entity.

I do not actually think "Don't hate the player, hate the game." is a particularly good philosophy for manifold.

@jacksonpolack that's probably a bigger topic than we can address here, but it would be interesting to think through examples of ways in which Manifold has gotten better, gotten worse, or failed to get better despite the clear potential for improvements. In each case, we could look at the extent to which the change resulted from individual action (e.g., trading to the price a market should be at versus the expected resolution probability) versus institutional action (e.g., facilitating discussions and developing concrete proposals for the admins to change the site itself, mod policies, etc.). Of course those categories are almost always intertwined, so causal attribution is tough.

bought Ṁ1 NO

@Jacy I bet 1 M just so I could flag the bet when it's resolved incorrectly.

@Snarflak that was my original intent as well, but if we were ready to complain if it resolved incorrectly, we should also be ready to highlight that the author resolved it correctly despite his strong political views on the subject. He'd also acknowledged the original resolution criteria were super vague and made substantial improvements to them. I think we need more of these two kinds of actions - improving market descriptions and resolving in spite of one's political convictions - so I'm bringing attention to them.

bought Ṁ1,000 NO

Buying No, seems clear that it is long term, gradual trends, and not metrics that change significantly within a month, that doom states like NY to fail. While NY's performance on many of these metrics is sure to be low, it is probably not going to be notably lower than at the start of the month. The market maker was clear that minor metric ticks do not count as collapse.

bought Ṁ10 YES from 0.7% to 0.8%
bought Ṁ10 YES

@ConnorTabarrok the market does not say these changes have to occur in February. It says "before the end of February," which can include the past. Has @CaptainHowdy stated otherwise?

Food for Thought

1) Where New York City's fate hangs in the balance, not all heroes wear capes—some wear Buffalo Bills jerseys.

Just when all hope seems lost, the Bills Mafia steps up.

Armed with nothing but their unyielding spirit, folding tables, and an inexplicable ability to generate warmth through sheer enthusiasm, they descend upon the city.

Through a coordinated effort of tailgate parties, they spread warmth and camaraderie, melting the snow and ice with their fiery passion for their team.

New Yorkers scratch their heads in disbelief as they watch a band of football fans save the city, one broken table and spicy chicken wing at a time.

Saving that, I'll suck your dick for a cheeseburger in Albany. With that offer, NYC remains steadfast and can thank UPSTATE NY for saving, probably, the world.

Ur welcome.

@iceman I want to like this

But... my "f*** the Bills and the Jets" instincts are stronger.

Tempted to bet yes just because that's how I think the creator will resolve it 😅

2 traders bought Ṁ20 YES

@Will94fc The "clear and undeniable" part of the market gives me reassurance, though it's worth noting that this market was created one week before February's end. The odds of NY going from "functioning state" to "collapsed society" in that time are slim to none. (You could maybe argue that COVID lockdowns caused such a collapse, but I'd be surprised if I live through another event like COVID.)

@Will94fc Can't they then be banned for resolving bets incorrectly?

@Snarflak The current policy is that a mod could re-resolve if there's "blatant" misresolution where everyone agrees it was misresolved but not if there's "room for interpretation." Personally, I think it's clear that this NY collapse market has a lot of room for @CaptainHowdy's interpretation, and I think they've made their view fairly clear in the comments for people who are paying attention.

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