Manufacturer of the next passenger plane crash with 10+ fatalities?
Basic
4
Ṁ483
resolved Aug 9
100%94%Other
1.0%
Airbus
1.0%
Boeing
1.0%
Embraer
0.6%
McDonnell Douglas
3%
British Aerospace

If it's Boieng I'm not going ? DC-10 final laugh? You predict!

Fine print:

  • 10+ fatalities: 10 or more confirmed dead by reliable news source

  • Not private aviation: commercial passenger flight

  • Crash: the event must be linked to the airplane in some way, e.g. significant kinetic energy involved, fuel fire, or passenger stranded in isolated mountains. Not a mass shooting in the airplane, that could have happenned anywhere.

  • If a flight dissapears Malaysia Airline-style, all lives on board assumed lost after 7 days, and this would most likely resolves

  • Fatalities from the flight itself -- death from people not on the flight, for example ground personel, firefighters, or just random people in buildings hit by the airplane, do not count toward the 10+ fatalities. On-board personel counts toward the fatalities count.

  • Accident, hijacking, war, suicide, terrorism all counts, as long as tthe "airplane involved" criteria is fullfulled, and that this is a commercial passenger flight

  • If there is merger-aquisition before resolution, resolve to the most precise manufacturer name (e.g. if airbus acquire embraer, and a embraer-branded jet crashes, this resolves to embraer, not airbus).

  • In flight, runway or ground collision: counts for this market, and resolves to all involved manufacturer. Counts fatalities from any of the commercial flight involved in the collision.

In case of ambiguity, will discuss in the comments. Reserve the right to reversibly close in that case (temporary trading halt) as well as resolves N/A, or multiple manufacturers if necessary.

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@CamillePerrin Looking at when the market was created, I think this can resolve based on this incident!

Indeed, 12 fatalities barely makes it, but that does resolve this market.

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