Will anyone be charged with interfering with the 2024 US general election before 2026?
4
130Ṁ37
2026
42%
chance

Definitions

  • charged means having a criminal complaint, indictment, or other charging document accusing someone published by any US government entity such as a federal, state, local, or tribal government. A civil lawsuit, a congressional report, or a congressional impeachment will not count. The charges must be officially made available to the public. A leak does not count. A press release from an US government entity referencing the charges is sufficient. The document must be made public by the specified time. An unsealed indictment dated in the past, made public after the specified time will not count.

  • interfering means causing the election vote counts to change in a manner that violates criminal law. Attempted election interference does not count, the charges must allege that a person did so successfully.

  • 2024 US general election means any federal, state, local, or tribal election, referendum, ballot measure, proposition, ballot question, or other voting activities scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024 organized by a US government entity within the boundaries of the contiguous United States, Alaska, or Hawaii. Elections organized by US territories do not count. If a voting activity is postponed but was originally scheduled for the above-mentioned date it will count.

  • before 2026 means before January 1, 2026 00:00 in UTC−10:00 (Hawaii time).

I will not participate in this market because I may have to judge stuff like what "other voting activities" includes. I will try my best to apply canons of construction to interpret the definitions. You are welcome to poke holes and ask hypotheticals and I may amend the definitions.

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