Definitions
a member of the next Cabinet of the United States means a cabinet member who
takes office after being appointed or nominated by the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election, they must swear in or assume office before May 1, 2025,
continues their pre-election role in the cabinet as of noon on January 27, 2025 without anyone nominated to replace them, or
swears in as the vice president after the 2024 US Presidential Election before May 1, 2025.
Unconfirmed acting heads of the executive departments do not count.
Cabinet of the United States means the vice president, the heads of the executive departments, and other Cabinet-level officials. It currently includes:
Vice President
Attorney General
Secretary of State
Secretary of the Treasury
Secretary of Defense
Secretary of the Interior
Secretary of Agriculture
Secretary of Commerce
Secretary of Labor
Secretary of Health and Human Services
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
Secretary of Transportation
Secretary of Energy
Secretary of Education
Secretary of Veterans Affairs
Secretary of Homeland Security
Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency
Director of the Office of Management and Budget
Director of National Intelligence
Director of the Central Intelligence Agency
Trade Representative
Ambassador to the United Nations
Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers
Administrator of the Small Business Administration
Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy
White House Chief of Staff
If a position elevated to Cabinet-rank, or a new department is created before May 1, 2025 then it will be included.
All times in DC time.
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People are also trading
@HillaryClinton Lori seems to have a pending cloture vote result
but i've resolved the other ones Yes
@diadematus @Calvin6b82 Has not responded to some pinging. Which answers should resolve? Show some evidence.
@diadematus I resolved a few to Yes that showed evidence from your page. I can't see how I could resolve any of the No ones at this point. If you want more you will need to be more specific. It's clearly not "All of them".
@MonaSalama Isn't this guy just up for chairman of the Counsel of Economic Advisors? That's not a cabinet position
@Marnix CEA is indeed 1 of the 10 cabinet level officials while the other 15 are dept heads
During Trump first term he announced that his cabinet won’t include a CEA chair & he didn’t name Kevin Hassett until April of 2017
Trump named Miran before Xmas. He didn’t say he would include/exclude in his cabinet for his 2nd administration
Also It was also include in the list in the description for this market trade
@MonaSalama It was during Obama and Bidens' terms, but I think we've got a weird case here — I believe Trump de-elevated it to a non-cabinet position. I'd personally be fine with it still resolving YES, though
Some of these are mispriced. For example, Kalshi gives Lutnick a 97% chance (https://kalshi.com/markets/kxseccom/next-secretary-of-commerce). I don't have enough mana to fix all of the mispricings.
@polymathematic see, for example, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_cabinet_of_Donald_Trump. No FBI director, no Kash Patel.
@polymathematic also the Wiki page Cabinet of the US does not list the FBI director, however some positions have been intermittently elevated to Cabinet-rank, this is what YES holders are betting on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States#Positions_intermittently_elevated_to_Cabinet-rank