@mods market creator is likely inactive

@diadematus @Calvin6b82 Has not responded to some pinging. Which answers should resolve? Show some evidence.

@Eliza Most of them? All of them? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_cabinet_of_Donald_Trump

@diadematus I resolved a few to Yes that showed evidence from your page. I can't see how I could resolve any of the No ones at this point. If you want more you will need to be more specific. It's clearly not "All of them".

@MonaSalama Isn't this guy just up for chairman of the Counsel of Economic Advisors? That's not a cabinet position

@Marnix CEA is indeed 1 of the 10 cabinet level officials while the other 15 are dept heads

During Trump first term he announced that his cabinet won’t include a CEA chair & he didn’t name Kevin Hassett until April of 2017

Trump named Miran before Xmas. He didn’t say he would include/exclude in his cabinet for his 2nd administration

Also It was also include in the list in the description for this market trade

@MonaSalama It was during Obama and Bidens' terms, but I think we've got a weird case here — I believe Trump de-elevated it to a non-cabinet position. I'd personally be fine with it still resolving YES, though

President Trump Announces Acting Cabinet and Cabinet-Level Positions

Pursuant to the Constitution and the laws of the United States, including but not limited to 5 U.S.C. 3345 et seq., I hereby direct the

Some of these are mispriced. For example, Kalshi gives Lutnick a 97% chance (https://kalshi.com/markets/kxseccom/next-secretary-of-commerce). I don't have enough mana to fix all of the mispricings.

@HthePenguin Also, Doug Collins should resolve Yes.

Director of the FBI isn’t a cabinet role, right?

@polymathematic see, for example, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_cabinet_of_Donald_Trump. No FBI director, no Kash Patel.

@polymathematic also the Wiki page Cabinet of the US does not list the FBI director, however some positions have been intermittently elevated to Cabinet-rank, this is what YES holders are betting on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States#Positions_intermittently_elevated_to_Cabinet-rank

@aleven @Calvin any chance you could weigh in? seems clear to me from your description, from wikipedia, and from news reports that director of the FBI should not count as cabinet role, but would love to make sure. thanks!

@mods Please resolve. Wiles, Hegseth, Rubio, Noem, and Duffy have all assumed office.

@Marnix Vance too.

Resolve…

Wiles, Hegseth, Rubio, and Noem have assumed office. Could we get some YES resolutions?

@Calvin6b82 Wiles, Hegseth, Rubio yes

According to "Establishing And Implementing The President's "Department Of Government Efficiency" – The White House",

DOGE is just the United States Digital Service, renamed, with a few people added.
Doesn't seem like a cabinet level position, to me

@EricNeyman if you wanna sell Tulsi NO shares at polymarket price, ping me

same for RFK

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/12/03/politics/democrats-trump-cabinet-nominees

Polymarket has Tulsi at 47%

yEaH bUt tHeRe iS a ZeRo ChAnCe tHeY gEt CoNfIrMeD. 😂

@Predictor Yep. Oh man, I'm surprised that some of you liberals didn't actually realize. Donald Trump doesn't care about the norms of your "democracy", he's gonna burn the system down and all the elites with it. Looking forward to Project 2025, there are some great changes in there!

@stardust i think a lot of the expectations that at least some of the members of this absolute shit show won't get confirmed are wishful thinking from conservatives.

@LukasTilmann Why would Trump voters not want them confirmed?

@Shai first of all, I said "conservatives", not "Trump voters". Second, a lot of the Trump voters who are well informed enough to use niche political prediction markets convinced themselves that Trump wouldn't actually do the stupid policies he ran on and that he would nominate normal people like during his first term. Hanania is an example.

@LukasTilmann Just curious, what are the top 3 stupidest policies Trump ran on in your opinion?

@Shai Everything else is so overshadowed by the blanket tariffs that it's almost pointless to talk about anything else, but I don't think informed conservatives are hoping for him to implement policies he floated such as abolishing the income tax in favor of tariffs, excempting tips from taxes, capping credit card interest rates at 10%, making overtime pay tax free... I think a lot of them are also think that mass deportations would be inflationary and bad for the economy.

Fwiw, I don't think he will actually do his grab bag of peronist tax giveaways but he will do tariffs and get his nominations through.