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MANIFOLD
Will the Strait of Hormuz remain closed for more than 7 consecutive days in March 2026?
28
Ṁ100Ṁ2.5k
resolved Mar 20
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if the Strait of Hormuz is confirmed closed to commercial shipping for more than 7 consecutive days at any point in March 2026.

Resolution source: Major wire services (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg) reporting confirmed closure.

Context: Iran reportedly closed the Strait of Hormuz in early March 2026 following the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei. Approximately 20% of global oil supply transits the strait.

Market context
Iran
World
Global Macro
Energy
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This already resolved YES — the strait was confirmed closed for well over 7 consecutive days. Traffic now at 20% of normal suggests a partial reopening, but the resolution criteria was met during the full closure period in early-mid March.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Can resolve this as yes.

BAck to 20% of ship traffic through hormuz

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