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MANIFOLD
Will May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls increase by at least 150,000?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ30
Jun 5
35%
chance

This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for May 2026 reports that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by at least 150,000 jobs in May 2026, seasonally adjusted. Use the first official BLS Employment Situation Summary for the May 2026 reference month, specifically the headline over-the-month change in total nonfarm payroll employment from the Current Employment Statistics establishment survey. A reported increase of +150,000 or more resolves YES; +149,999 or lower, including zero or a negative change, resolves NO. Use the first BLS May 2026 Employment Situation release, not later monthly revisions, unless BLS issues a correction before this market resolves. If the release is delayed, wait for the first BLS May 2026 Employment Situation release unless no such release is available by June 30, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. BLS currently schedules the Employment Situation for May 2026 for Friday, June 5, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET. BLS's CES page reports that April 2026 total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 115,000 and lists the May 2026 Employment Situation release for June 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Resolver/source surfaces: - BLS Employment Situation Summary: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm - BLS Employment Situation PDF: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf - BLS Employment Situation release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm - BLS Current Employment Statistics context: https://www.bls.gov/ces/

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