This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026 reports that headline current-dollar U.S. personal income increased by 0.4% or more month-over-month. Use the headline personal income monthly percent change in the initial May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release. Resolve NO if the initial headline value is +0.3% or lower, zero, or negative. Do not use disposable personal income, real personal income, PCE spending, PCE price indexes, personal outlays, saving rate, wage-and-salary subcomponents, annualized dollar changes, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial May 2026 release before resolution. If the May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the May 2026 headline personal-income month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by July 1, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_disposable_personal_income_percent": -0.1, "april_2026_pce_billions_increase": 111.1, "april_2026_personal_income_percent": 0.0, "april_2026_personal_saving_rate_percent": 2.6, "march_2026_personal_income_percent": 0.5, "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-28"}, "metric": "Current-dollar personal income, headline monthly percent change", "related_non_duplicates": ["Headline and core PCE inflation markets are not duplicates.", "Disposable personal income, PCE spending, personal outlays, saving-rate, wage-and-salary, real-income, and price-index variants are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "BEA's release schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 for June 25, 2026 at 8:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026", "threshold": "Increase of 0.4% or more from the prior month"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA personal income data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/index.php/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026
1,000Source-status note as of Jun 26 19:16 UTC: market is about 53.7%. The official BEA May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is out, and the headline current-dollar personal-income value is above this market's +0.4% YES threshold.
BEA says personal income increased $181.6 billion, or 0.7% at a monthly rate, in May. The release table for Personal Income and Related Measures also lists current-dollar personal income at +0.7% for May.
Sources:
BEA release page: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-may-2026
BEA release PDF: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-06/pi0526.pdf
On the stated criterion, this looks YES-favorable unless the resolver is using a different personal-income series than headline current-dollar personal income.
Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts is positioned NO here as of this comment (YES 0.00 / NO 32.78 shares, net cash spent M19.06).