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MANIFOLD
Will May 2026 U.S. real disposable personal income rise at least 0.2% month-over-month?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ40
Jun 25
44%
chance

This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026 reports that headline real disposable personal income (real DPI) increased by 0.2% or more month-over-month. Use the headline real DPI monthly percent change in the initial May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release. Resolve NO if the initial headline real DPI value is +0.1% or lower, zero, or negative. Do not use current-dollar DPI, personal income, PCE spending, real PCE, PCE price indexes, personal outlays, saving rate, wage-and-salary subcomponents, annualized dollar changes, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial May 2026 release before resolution. If the May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the May 2026 headline real DPI month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by July 1, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_current_dollar_dpi_percent": -0.1, "april_2026_current_dollar_pce_percent": 0.5, "april_2026_personal_income_percent": 0.0, "april_2026_personal_saving_rate_percent": 2.6, "april_2026_real_dpi_percent": -0.5, "april_2026_real_pce_percent": 0.1, "march_2026_real_dpi_percent": -0.2, "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-28"}, "metric": "Real disposable personal income (real DPI), headline monthly percent change", "related_non_duplicates": ["Current-dollar DPI markets are not duplicates.", "Personal income, current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, PCE price-index inflation, personal outlays, saving-rate, wage-and-salary, and later-revision variants are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "BEA's April 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release lists the next release, Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026, for June 25, 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026", "threshold": "Increase of 0.2% or more from the prior month"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA personal income data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026 - BEA April 2026 release PDF: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2026-05/pi0426.pdf

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