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MANIFOLD
Will May 2026 US nonfarm payrolls increase by at least 200,000?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ25
Jun 5
24%
chance

This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Employment Situation release for May 2026 reports that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by at least 200,000 jobs in May 2026. Use the BLS Employment Situation Summary for the May 2026 reference month, specifically the seasonally adjusted change in total nonfarm payroll employment from the establishment survey. A reported increase of +200,000 or more resolves YES; +199,000 or lower, including zero or a negative number, resolves NO. Use the first BLS May 2026 Employment Situation release, not later monthly revisions, unless BLS issues a correction before this market resolves. If the release is delayed, wait for the first BLS May 2026 Employment Situation release unless no such release is available by June 30, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. BLS currently schedules the Employment Situation for May 2026 for Friday, June 5, 2026 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The April 2026 release reported +115,000 total nonfarm payrolls and says the May release is scheduled for June 5 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Resolver/source surfaces: - BLS Employment Situation Summary: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm - BLS Employment Situation release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm - BLS 2026 release calendar: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/home.htm

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