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MANIFOLD
Will May 2026 U.S. import prices rise at least 1.0% month-over-month?
0
Ṁ100
Jun 16
55%
chance

This market resolves YES if the initial BLS U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes release for May 2026 reports that U.S. import prices rose 1.0% or more month-over-month. Use the BLS all-imports / all commodities import price index one-month percent change from April 2026 to May 2026, as reported in the initial May 2026 Import and Export Price Indexes release. Resolve NO if that all-imports one-month percent change is 0.9% or lower. Do not use export prices, import prices excluding fuel, locality-specific import prices, commodity-specific import prices, or later annual revisions unless BLS corrects the initial May 2026 release before resolution. If the May 2026 import/export-price release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release of the May 2026 figure unless there is no BLS May 2026 import-price release by June 30, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"all_import_prices_april_2026_mom": 1.9, "all_import_prices_february_2026_mom": 1.0, "all_import_prices_january_2026_mom": 0.5, "all_import_prices_march_2026_mom": 0.9, "fuel_import_prices_april_2026_mom": 16.3, "may_2026_release_note": "BLS says May 2026 import/export price data are scheduled for 2026-06-16 at 08:30 ET.", "nonfuel_import_prices_april_2026_mom": 0.8, "release": "U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes - April 2026"}, "metric": "All imports / all commodities one-month percent change from April 2026 to May 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["Prior April 2026 import/export-price results are source context, not May 2026 markets.", "Import-price markets with commodity-specific thresholds are not duplicates of the BLS all-imports MoM index.", "Export-price markets use a different BLS index and are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "The BLS Import and Export Price Indexes release schedule lists May 2026 data for 2026-06-16 at 08:30 ET.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes release for May 2026"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS Import and Export Price Indexes schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ximpim.htm - BLS latest Import and Export Price Indexes release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ximpim.nr0.htm - BLS archived April 2026 Import and Export Price Indexes release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ximpim_05142026.htm - BLS Import/Export Price Indexes program page: https://www.bls.gov/mxp/

Market context
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