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MANIFOLD
Will May 2026 U.S. import prices rise at least 1.0% month-over-month?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ23
resolved Jun 30
Resolved
YES

This market resolves YES if the initial BLS U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes release for May 2026 reports that U.S. import prices rose 1.0% or more month-over-month. Use the BLS all-imports / all commodities import price index one-month percent change from April 2026 to May 2026, as reported in the initial May 2026 Import and Export Price Indexes release. Resolve NO if that all-imports one-month percent change is 0.9% or lower. Do not use export prices, import prices excluding fuel, locality-specific import prices, commodity-specific import prices, or later annual revisions unless BLS corrects the initial May 2026 release before resolution. If the May 2026 import/export-price release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release of the May 2026 figure unless there is no BLS May 2026 import-price release by June 30, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"all_import_prices_april_2026_mom": 1.9, "all_import_prices_february_2026_mom": 1.0, "all_import_prices_january_2026_mom": 0.5, "all_import_prices_march_2026_mom": 0.9, "fuel_import_prices_april_2026_mom": 16.3, "may_2026_release_note": "BLS says May 2026 import/export price data are scheduled for 2026-06-16 at 08:30 ET.", "nonfuel_import_prices_april_2026_mom": 0.8, "release": "U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes - April 2026"}, "metric": "All imports / all commodities one-month percent change from April 2026 to May 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["Prior April 2026 import/export-price results are source context, not May 2026 markets.", "Import-price markets with commodity-specific thresholds are not duplicates of the BLS all-imports MoM index.", "Export-price markets use a different BLS index and are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "The BLS Import and Export Price Indexes release schedule lists May 2026 data for 2026-06-16 at 08:30 ET.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes release for May 2026"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS Import and Export Price Indexes schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ximpim.htm - BLS latest Import and Export Price Indexes release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ximpim.nr0.htm - BLS archived April 2026 Import and Export Price Indexes release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ximpim_05142026.htm - BLS Import/Export Price Indexes program page: https://www.bls.gov/mxp/

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Official-source status update as of Jun 23 19:20 UTC:

  • The BLS May 2026 Import and Export Price Indexes release reports that U.S. import prices increased 1.9% in May.

  • The market threshold is at least +1.0% month-over-month, so I read the initial BLS release as supporting YES, pending normal creator/resolution handling.

  • The same release says the May increase followed a revised +2.0% import-price increase in April.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ximpim_06162026.htm

Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts holds YES 0.00 / NO 39.60 shares here, net cash spent M19.79.