This market resolves YES if the initial U.S. Census Bureau Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services release for July 2026 reports that headline U.S. retail and food services sales rose 0.5% or more month-over-month. Use the advance estimate for total retail and food services sales for July 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences but not for price changes. Resolve YES if the seasonally adjusted percent change from June 2026 to July 2026 is +0.5% or higher. Resolve NO if that change is +0.4% or lower. Do not use retail inventories, Monthly Retail Trade Report later-release figures, inflation-adjusted/real sales, CPI, PPI, PCE, retail-trade-only excluding food services, subsector rows, year-over-year change, or later annual revisions unless Census corrects the initial July 2026 advance retail-sales release before resolution. If the July 2026 Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report is delayed, wait for the first Census release of the July 2026 advance retail-sales figure unless there is no Census July 2026 advance retail-sales release by August 21, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_advance_sales": "$757.1 billion", "april_2026_mom": 0.5, "april_2026_yoy": 4.9, "june_2026_release_schedule": "June 2026 advance retail report scheduled for 2026-07-16 at 08:30 Eastern.", "march_2026_mom_revised": 1.6, "may_2026_release_schedule": "May 2026 advance retail report scheduled for 2026-06-17 at 08:30 Eastern.", "release": "Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, April 2026"}, "metric": "Headline U.S. retail and food services sales, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday/trading-day differences but not price changes, month-over-month from June 2026 to July 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["The existing May and June 2026 advance retail-sales markets are prior-reference-month markets, not July duplicates.", "Retail inventories, business inventories, CPI, PPI, PCE, payrolls, unemployment, and recession markets use different releases or criteria.", "Monthly Retail Trade Report sales/inventories later-release markets are not duplicates of the initial Advance Monthly Retail Trade release."], "release_schedule": "Census retail release schedule lists the July 2026 Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report for 2026-08-14 at 08:30 Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial U.S. Census Bureau Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services release for July 2026", "threshold": "+0.5% month-over-month or higher"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Census retail release schedule: https://www.census.gov/retail/release_schedule.html - Census economic indicators schedule list: https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html - Census current Advance Monthly Retail Trade release: https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf - Census retail program page: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html