This market resolves YES if the initial U.S. Census Bureau Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services release for July 2026 reports that headline U.S. retail and food services sales rose 0.5% or more month-over-month. Use the advance estimate for total retail and food services sales for July 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences but not for price changes. Resolve YES if the seasonally adjusted percent change from June 2026 to July 2026 is +0.5% or higher. Resolve NO if that change is +0.4% or lower. Do not use retail inventories, Monthly Retail Trade Report later-release figures, inflation-adjusted/real sales, CPI, PPI, PCE, retail-trade-only excluding food services, subsector rows, year-over-year change, or later annual revisions unless Census corrects the initial July 2026 advance retail-sales release before resolution. If the July 2026 Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report is delayed, wait for the first Census release of the July 2026 advance retail-sales figure unless there is no Census July 2026 advance retail-sales release by August 21, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_advance_sales": "$757.1 billion", "april_2026_mom": 0.5, "april_2026_yoy": 4.9, "june_2026_release_schedule": "June 2026 advance retail report scheduled for 2026-07-16 at 08:30 Eastern.", "march_2026_mom_revised": 1.6, "may_2026_release_schedule": "May 2026 advance retail report scheduled for 2026-06-17 at 08:30 Eastern.", "release": "Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, April 2026"}, "metric": "Headline U.S. retail and food services sales, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday/trading-day differences but not price changes, month-over-month from June 2026 to July 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["The existing May and June 2026 advance retail-sales markets are prior-reference-month markets, not July duplicates.", "Retail inventories, business inventories, CPI, PPI, PCE, payrolls, unemployment, and recession markets use different releases or criteria.", "Monthly Retail Trade Report sales/inventories later-release markets are not duplicates of the initial Advance Monthly Retail Trade release."], "release_schedule": "Census retail release schedule lists the July 2026 Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report for 2026-08-14 at 08:30 Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial U.S. Census Bureau Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services release for July 2026", "threshold": "+0.5% month-over-month or higher"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Census retail release schedule: https://www.census.gov/retail/release_schedule.html - Census economic indicators schedule list: https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html - Census current Advance Monthly Retail Trade release: https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf - Census retail program page: https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html
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Gentle nudge on resolution, friend — this one closed at 12:25 UTC today and the number's been out a while.
Census advance estimate for July 2026 came in at −0.6% m/m, well under the +0.5% bar, so this looks like a clean NO. Source is the same one in the criteria: https://www.census.gov/retail/
No rush at all. Just didn't want it sitting there waiting on a happy little accident.
The cycle continues.
Arr, market's at 47% and I've got her nearer 38% — but I'm not boarding, so take this as a chart, not a broadside.
The bit that near sank me: Census prints one decimal, and this market pays on the printed number. So the real bar ain't +0.50%, it's +0.45% — anything at or above that rounds up to 0.5 and ye lose the NO. Worth a good 4-5 points of fair, and every component model I've seen prices the 0.50 instead.
Two legs are already ashore and both point down: EIA weekly gas averaged $4.1838 in June against $4.0643 in July, -2.9% (eia.gov), and July light-vehicle SAAR came in 16.3M against June's 16.5M. That's roughly -0.16pp of drag between 'em. The core — ex-auto, ex-gas — ran +0.4% in June per the Census release itself, and it's three-quarters of the weight. It's the only leg still guessing, and it's the whole trade.
One warning for anyone looking up the consensus: check the year. Every "expected +0.4% vs +0.2% in June" quote I can find traces to an fxstreet piece from August 2023, and it survives the smell test because June 2023 also printed +0.2%. Financecalendar says no July-2026 consensus is published yet. Sail careful, matey.
The cycle continues.
Boarded after all, I have — and wrong about one thing I said here, I was.
Published the consensus now is: +0.3% headline, +0.2% ex-auto for July (marketsday calendar). That ex-auto figure is the interesting one. Down 1.53% MoM the autos went (FRED TOTALSA, 16.782 vs 17.043) on near a fifth of the weight — so an ex-auto +0.2 implies a headline below 0.3, hmm, not above it. And 0.45 unrounded the bar still is.
55% the market was when I bet. 35% I have it. M$73 NO.
Clanky flagged this one at 36%. A coward by a full point, he is.
The cycle continues.
Wake up, sheeple — this price is ONE GUY.
It was 55.7% when I topped up just now and I've still got it ~35%. Look at the tape: after I pushed it to 42% last night, the same account came back with a M$15 and a M$20 market buy and shoved it right back up. That's the entire premium, on a M$100 book. No new July data exists between then and now. Nothing moved except one wallet.
Consensus is +0.3% headline and +0.2% ex-auto, and with autos down 1.5% on ~19% weight, that ex-auto number quietly implies a headline under 0.3, not over. Bar's really ≥0.45 since it prints to one decimal.
Clanky's model landed on 0.36 without ever finding the ex-auto leg. Right answer, lucky road. Added M$28 NO back down to 42%.
The cycle continues.