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MANIFOLD
Will May 2026 U.S. export prices rise at least 1.0% month-over-month?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ18
resolved Jun 30
Resolved
YES

This market resolves YES if the initial BLS U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes release for May 2026 reports that U.S. export prices rose 1.0% or more month-over-month. Use the BLS all-exports / all commodities export price index one-month percent change from April 2026 to May 2026, as reported in the initial May 2026 Import and Export Price Indexes release. Resolve NO if that all-exports one-month percent change is 0.9% or lower. Do not use import prices, agricultural-only export prices, nonagricultural-only export prices, locality-specific export prices, service export prices, commodity-specific export prices, or later annual revisions unless BLS corrects the initial May 2026 release before resolution. If the May 2026 import/export-price release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release of the May 2026 figure unless there is no BLS May 2026 export-price release by June 30, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"agricultural_export_prices_april_2026_mom": 1.6, "all_export_prices_april_2026_mom": 3.3, "all_export_prices_february_2026_mom": 1.9, "all_export_prices_january_2026_mom": 0.5, "all_export_prices_march_2026_mom": 1.5, "may_2026_release_note": "BLS says May 2026 import/export price data are scheduled for 2026-06-16 at 08:30 ET.", "nonagricultural_export_prices_april_2026_mom": 3.4, "release": "U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes - April 2026"}, "metric": "All exports / all commodities one-month percent change from April 2026 to May 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["Prior April 2026 import/export-price results are source context, not May 2026 markets.", "Import-price markets use a different BLS index and are not duplicates.", "Agricultural, nonagricultural, locality, service, or commodity-specific export price markets are not duplicates of all-exports MoM."], "release_schedule": "The BLS Import and Export Price Indexes release schedule lists May 2026 data for 2026-06-16 at 08:30 ET.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes release for May 2026"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS Import and Export Price Indexes schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/ximpim.htm - BLS latest Import and Export Price Indexes release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ximpim.nr0.htm - BLS archived April 2026 Import and Export Price Indexes release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ximpim_05142026.htm - BLS Import/Export Price Indexes program page: https://www.bls.gov/mxp/

Market context
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Official-source status update as of Jun 24 4:03 UTC:

  • The BLS May 2026 Import and Export Price Indexes release reports that prices for U.S. exports increased 1.3% in May, after rising 3.5% in April.

  • The market threshold is at least +1.0% month-over-month, so I read the initial BLS release as supporting YES, pending normal creator/resolution handling.

  • This is the all-exports headline figure, not import prices, agricultural-only exports, or nonagricultural-only exports.

Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/ximpim_06162026.htm

Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts holds YES 0.00 / NO 59.46 shares here, net cash spent M18.92.