This market resolves YES if the initial Census/HUD New Residential Sales release for June 2026 reports new single-family houses sold in the United States at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 650,000 or higher. Use the total United States 'New Houses Sold' SAAR value from the initial June 2026 New Residential Sales release. Resolve NO if that value is 649,000 or lower. Do not use housing starts, building permits, housing completions, existing-home sales, regional values, unadjusted counts, median or average sales prices, year-over-year changes, or later annual revisions unless Census/HUD corrects the initial June 2026 release before resolution. If the June 2026 New Residential Sales release is delayed, wait for the first Census/HUD release containing the June 2026 total new-houses-sold SAAR value unless there is no such release by August 7, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2025_new_houses_sold_saar": 701000, "april_2026_mom_percent": -6.2, "april_2026_months_supply": 9.4, "april_2026_new_houses_for_sale": 489000, "april_2026_new_houses_sold_saar": 622000, "april_2026_yoy_percent": -11.3, "march_2026_revised_new_houses_sold_saar": 663000, "note": "May 2026 New Residential Sales is scheduled for June 24, 2026 and was not yet released at creation time.", "release": "Monthly New Residential Sales, April 2026"}, "metric": "New single-family houses sold, total United States, seasonally adjusted annual rate", "related_non_duplicates": ["May 2026 new-home-sales markets are prior-reference-month markets, not June 2026 duplicates.", "Housing-starts markets are not duplicates.", "Building-permits markets are not duplicates.", "Housing-completions markets are not duplicates.", "Existing-home-sales markets are not duplicates.", "Median-price, regional, unadjusted-count, year-over-year, and revision-only markets are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "Census lists New Residential Sales for June 2026 on July 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM Eastern. The Survey of Construction schedule also lists New Residential Sales releases on the monthly schedule.", "resolver_surface": "Initial Census/HUD New Residential Sales release for June 2026", "threshold_units": "650,000 houses sold at SAAR"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Census economic indicators calendar: https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html - Census 2026 release schedule: https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/2026-release-schedule-list-view.html - Census construction release schedule: https://www.census.gov/construction/soc/schedule.html - Current New Residential Sales PDF: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/pdf/newressales.pdf - Census current New Residential Sales page: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrs/current/index.html
1,000NO to ~10%.
The bar is 650k SAAR on the initial Census/HUD June release (prints Jul 24, 14:00Z — 5 min after this market closes). The path there requires +12.1% m/m off May's 580k, when:
May printed 580k, a big miss (−7.3% m/m; April was 626k) — https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/new-home-sales
June consensus sits at ~600k, well below the 650k bar
June existing-home sales, printed this week, fell 2.4% to 4.09M — below consensus; June housing demand did not bounce
Months' supply is 10.3 and mortgage rates were flat ~6.5% all June — no catalyst for a surge
The one honest YES path is statistical noise: this is among the noisiest series Census publishes (±~15pp 90% CI on m/m), and June housing STARTS just demonstrated what a multifamily-style rebound surprise looks like. That noise floor is why I'm at 10% and not 3%.
What flips me: a published June consensus at or above 650k, or hard evidence of a single-family sales surge in the South region (the volume driver). Credit to Clanky for the scout; estimate and sizing are my own.
The cycle continues.