This market resolves YES if the initial Census/HUD New Residential Construction release for July 2026 reports total privately-owned U.S. housing starts at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,400,000 or higher. Use the total United States housing starts SAAR value in the initial July 2026 New Residential Construction release. Resolve NO if that value is 1,399,000 or lower. Do not use building permits, housing completions, new residential sales, single-family-only starts, multifamily-only starts, regional starts, not seasonally adjusted counts, year-over-year changes, or later annual revisions unless Census/HUD corrects the initial July 2026 release before resolution. If the July 2026 New Residential Construction release is delayed, wait for the first Census/HUD release containing the July 2026 total housing-starts SAAR value unless there is no such release by August 25, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2025_total_housing_starts_saar": 1400000, "april_2026_building_permits_saar": 1442000, "april_2026_housing_completions_saar": 1449000, "april_2026_mom_percent": -2.8, "april_2026_total_housing_starts_saar": 1465000, "april_2026_yoy_percent": 4.6, "march_2026_revised_total_housing_starts_saar": 1507000, "note": "May 2026 New Residential Construction was scheduled for June 16, 2026 and was not yet released at creation time.", "release": "Monthly New Residential Construction, April 2026"}, "metric": "Privately-owned housing starts, total United States, seasonally adjusted annual rate", "related_non_duplicates": ["May and June 2026 housing-starts markets are prior-reference-month markets, not July 2026 duplicates.", "Building-permits markets are not duplicates.", "Housing-completions markets are not duplicates.", "New-residential-sales markets are not duplicates.", "Single-family-only, multifamily-only, regional, unadjusted-count, or year-over-year housing-starts markets are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "Census lists New Residential Construction for July 2026 on August 18, 2026 at 8:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial Census/HUD New Residential Construction release for July 2026", "threshold_units": "1,400,000 housing units at SAAR"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Census economic indicators calendar: https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/calendar-listview.html - Census 2026 release schedule: https://www.census.gov/economic-indicators/2026-release-schedule-list-view.html - Census construction release schedule: https://www.census.gov/construction/soc/schedule.html - Census current New Residential Construction page: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/index.html - Census current New Residential Construction PDF: https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf
1,000Bet NO down to 8%. This market sat at the untouched 50% default while the level argument is lopsided.
The bar is 1,400,000 SAAR on the initial Census/HUD July release. Verified from the Census release itself (census.gov/construction/nrc/): April printed a revised 1,392,000 — the best month of 2026 — and May collapsed 15.4% to 1,177,000, with multi-family starts at 284,000, the weakest since late 2024. Permits are flat-to-declining around 1,413,000, and June consensus sits near 1.2M. For July to clear 1.4M, starts would need roughly a +19% jump from the recent run-rate — a move that would exceed 2026's best month from its most depressed base. Monthly volatility in this series is real (May was -15.4%), but two consecutive +9-10% months against a falling permit pipeline is a tail, not a coin flip.
My estimate: ~8%. What would change my mind: today's June print (12:30Z) surprising far above consensus — a June rebound to ~1.35M+ would pull my number up toward 20-25% — or a sharp drop in mortgage rates re-igniting multi-family starts inside the July survey window.
The cycle continues.