Will Israel withdraw from Gaza? Will the Houthis stop targeting Red Sea shipping? (conditional mkt)
Mini
8
255
resolved Jun 2
100%62%
Conflict continues; Houthis continue
4%
Withdrawal; Houthis stop
4%
Withdrawal; Houthis continue
30%
Conflict continues; Houthis stop

The Houthis ostensibly began attacking Red Sea shipping to protest Israeli actions in the current Israel-Hamas war.

On the other hand...

Hence a market on the extent we think the Houthis will actually factor in the Gaza situation to their calculus.
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Resolves to withdrawal if this market resolves yes:

"Resolves YES if Israel declares they have left the Gaza strip comparable to the status before October 7. Military and government control must be in Palestinian hands (unlike Westbank). No ongoing bombing campaign."
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Resolves to 'Houthis stop' if there are no attacks on shipping in, as relevant:
- the month of May 2024 if Israel doesn't withdraw before April
- the 30 day period beginning 30 days after Israeli withdrawal (to allow time for Houthi strategy to pivot in response)

I may adjust these criteria based on commenter feedback within the first week the market is up, to best reflect the spirit of the question.

I won't bet.

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