As part of the process of altering the Australian Constitution to insert an Indigenous Voice, Labor has introduced the Constitution Alteration (Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice) 2023 Bill to the House of Representatives.

To progress to a national referendum, the bill must pass the House of Representatives and the Senate. Labor has a majority in the House of Representatives, but not the Senate. However, the Greens have indicated they support the Voice and the referendum. Their support would be enough for a Senate majority.

Currently, the bill is widely expected to pass (see embedded market), but will it pass with the current wording?

By "current wording", I mean the wording of the constitutional amendment introduced on the bill's first reading, as follows:

Chapter IX Recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples

129 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice

In recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Peoples of Australia:

1. There shall be a body, to be called the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice; 

2. The Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice may make representations to the Parliament and the Executive Government of the Commonwealth on matters relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples;

3. The Parliament shall, subject to this Constitution, have power to make laws with respect to matters relating to the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice, including its composition, functions, powers and procedures.

Any change at all to this wording, including vocabulary, punctuation, capitalisation, numbering and position in the Constitution, counts as an amendment for this market's purposes.

If there are any minor technical or grammatical changes to other parts of the bill not affecting the actual wording proposed to be inserted in the Constitution, these do not count as amendments in the spirit of this market.

I may update the closing date if debate over the bill takes longer than expected, but not beyond the end of 2023.

To avoid doubt, if the bill fails to pass at all, this market resolves NO.

The full bill and its progress can be viewed at https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Bills_Legislation/Bills_Search_Results/Result?bId=r7019