Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?

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resolved Oct 14

Resolved

YES

ALL

Resolves the same as this metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12257/aus-referendum-on-indigenous-voice-by-2026/

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predictedYES

@galen As I’m sure you’re aware, the referendum has happened. Would you mind resolving this?

predictedYES

@Gabrielle Sorry about the short delay with my resolution on this! I had in mind that my note in the description saying "Resolves the same as this metaculus question" would be interpreted as "I will resolve this after (& in the direction of) the metaculus resolution".

predictedYES

Received this in the mail today, but still no date confirmed:

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2023/feb/21/australia-news-live-interest-rates-reserve-bank-poll-ndis-health-housing-economy-albanese-dutton-greens

The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, confirmed the voice to parliament referendum will be held between October and December, most likely early October.

predictedYES

Albanese has announced that a referendum will occur before 2023, so this will very likely be YES.

https://www.jurist.org/news/2022/12/australian-pm-confirms-indigenous-voice-to-parliament-vote-will-occur-before-december-2023/

Given that the trading activity and volume on this market is very small relative to the enormous liquidity subsidies, I expect that Metaculus's prediction (78% as of 11-27) is better than the current Manifold prediction

predictedYES

@TomShlomi I agree! At the time that I subsidised the liquidity, I wasn’t expecting that it would stay so outsized relative to other markets.

This market is currently the most liquid market on Manifold. I expect more trading activity over the next few days now that I've implemented a sort by liquidity option on the Search page.

predictedYES

@SG This is so confusing to me! I added liquidity to this when I created it, because it’s interesting and decision-relevant to people I know. From my perspective, I was trying to incentivise more accurate & active trading. I’m surprised other users haven’t done this more!