Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026? | Manifold Markets

2

Will Australia hold a Federal Referendum on an "Indigenous Voice to Parliament" before January 1, 2026?

59

closes 2025

94%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves the same as this metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12257/aus-referendum-on-indigenous-voice-by-2026/

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Gabriellesold Ṁ2,972 of YES

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2023/feb/21/australia-news-live-interest-rates-reserve-bank-poll-ndis-health-housing-economy-albanese-dutton-greens

The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, confirmed the voice to parliament referendum will be held between October and December, most likely early October.

Gabrielleis predicting YES at 75%

Albanese has announced that a referendum will occur before 2023, so this will very likely be YES.

https://www.jurist.org/news/2022/12/australian-pm-confirms-indigenous-voice-to-parliament-vote-will-occur-before-december-2023/

Tоmbought Ṁ691 of YES

Given that the trading activity and volume on this market is very small relative to the enormous liquidity subsidies, I expect that Metaculus's prediction (78% as of 11-27) is better than the current Manifold prediction

Galenis predicting YES at 70%

@TomShlomi I agree! At the time that I subsidised the liquidity, I wasn’t expecting that it would stay so outsized relative to other markets.

S Gbought Ṁ250 of YES

This market is currently the most liquid market on Manifold. I expect more trading activity over the next few days now that I've implemented a sort by liquidity option on the Search page.

Galenis predicting YES at 67%

@SG This is so confusing to me! I added liquidity to this when I created it, because it’s interesting and decision-relevant to people I know. From my perspective, I was trying to incentivise more accurate & active trading. I’m surprised other users haven’t done this more!

S Gis predicting YES at 67%

@galen They will now!

Galenis predicting YES at 67%

@SG Pay for information that’s valuable to you, people! It’s it hard to do, and it gives you bonus warm fuzzy feelings!

S Gis predicting YES at 67%

@galen I will be re-introducing 3rd party subsidization soon (and making more prominent in the UI).

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Will Quebec hold a referendum on independence from Canada before the end of 2029?36%

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Will any country leave the Commonwealth before 2030?77%