What will be the level of philanthropic funding for nuclear issues in 2025?
What will be the level of philanthropic funding for nuclear issues in 2025?
2
120Ṁ242026
5.5m
expected
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Nuclear philanthropy is experiencing a disruption, with the recent announcement that the MacArthur Foundation, one of the largest funders, is exiting the field (https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/19/washington-arms-controllers-nuclear-weapons-500126). This question is designed to estimate the approximate annual funding level three years from now.
Recent levels of funding:
2021: $27.2 million
2020: $33.5 million
2019: $49.8 million
2018: $83.7 million
2017: $72.9 million
2016: $45.9 million
I will resolve this question based on data from the Peace and Security Funding Map (https://learningforfunders.candid.org/content/foundation-center-features/peace-and-security-funding-index1/).
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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