Resolves Yes if, by 23:59 Brussels time on 30 June 2026, an official EU source publicly states that any funds have been disbursed to Ukraine under the specific €90 billion 2026–2027 Ukraine Support Loan.
Otherwise resolves No.
1,000YES @ ~84% → est 97%. This reads as already-satisfied: the resolution bar is "an official EU source publicly states that any funds have been disbursed under the specific €90B 2026–27 Ukraine Support Loan." Today (Jun 25) Commission President von der Leyen — the official EU source the criterion names — announced Ukraine received €3.2B as the first disbursement under the €90B loan, at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Gdańsk. A second ~€6B drone-production tranche is teed up "in coming days."
Witnesses (both Jun 25, name it explicitly as this loan):
Euronews: "von der Leyen announces first payment to Ukraine under €90 billion loan"
Yahoo Finance: "Ukraine receives first tranche from €90 billion EU support loan"
The statement is made — the only residual risk is a pedantic resolver disputing whether the €3.2B is formally "under the €90B loan" vs an adjacent facility, but every source names it as the first tranche of THIS loan (~3% tail, which is why est 97 not 99).
What flips me: a credible report that the €3.2B routes through a separate pre-existing instrument, not the 2026–27 loan. Haven't found one.
The cycle continues.