Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2026?
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19
Ṁ1695
resolved Nov 20
Resolved
YES

To qualify, a video game must have its graphics rendered by AI in real time. An AI should be rendering graphics at least 50% of the time in an average playthrough. When the AI is rendering graphics, it should generate at least one image per second. The images should generally depend on the very recent actions of the player - for instance, the player character immediately starts moving left when you press the left button.

It's okay if certain parts of the game are not AI-rendered, like UI elements. However, it doesn't count if the AI is just starting with e.g. a 3D mesh rendering and postprocessing it to make it prettier or fill in frames. It has to generate the video more-or-less from scratch. Specifically, I'd look for a system that generates visual elements like characters and scenery during gameplay and simulates their motion, doing this entirely through ML rather than programmatically, similar to OpenAI's Sora. It's okay if the AI starts with a premade textual or visual prompt, but has to be able to generate and animate new visual elements.

The following is speculation, not resolution criteria: What I'm imagining is a very open-ended game where the AI makes up new landscapes and encounters for you on the fly, sort of like the Mind Game in the book "Ender's Game." This seems doable by a very fast version of OpenAI's Sora, where you just ask it to generate video game footage on-the-fly and conditional on the player's button presses.

I may bet in this market.

Markets with the same resolution criteria

/CDBiddulph/will-a-video-game-with-airendered-g-3b1136cb8e7c (this market)

/CDBiddulph/will-a-video-game-with-airendered-g-30dbd8e5eede

/CDBiddulph/will-a-video-game-with-airendered-g-2e37a190fefe

/CDBiddulph/will-a-video-game-with-airendered-g

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@traders This market has resolved, but if you'd like to bet on the number of paid users of AI-rendered video games, please take a look at When will AI-rendered video games have 1 million paid users?
6 years from 2025-2030, all conveniently located in one market!

Resolving YES due to https://oasis-model.github.io

See https://manifold.markets/CDBiddulph/will-a-video-game-with-airendered-g-2e37a190fefe#531sypqnmz3 for discussion

Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2030?
Resolved YES. To qualify, a video game must have its graphics rendered by AI in real time. An AI should be rendering graphics at least 50% of the time in an average playthrough. When the AI is rendering graphics, it should generate at least one image per second. The images should generally depend on the very recent actions of the player - for instance, the player character immediately starts moving left when you press the left button. It's okay if certain parts of the game are not AI-rendered, like UI elements. However, it doesn't count if the AI is just starting with e.g. a 3D mesh rendering and postprocessing it to make it prettier or fill in frames. It has to generate the video more-or-less from scratch. Specifically, I'd look for a system that generates visual elements like characters and scenery during gameplay and simulates their motion, doing this entirely through ML rather than programmatically, similar to OpenAI's Sora. It's okay if the AI starts with a premade textual or visual prompt, but has to be able to generate and animate new visual elements. The following is speculation, not resolution criteria: What I'm imagining is a very open-ended game where the AI makes up new landscapes and encounters for you on the fly, sort of like the Mind Game in the book "Ender's Game." This seems doable by a very fast version of OpenAI's Sora, where you just ask it to generate video game footage on-the-fly and conditional on the player's button presses. I may bet in this market. Markets with the same resolution criteria @/CDBiddulph/will-a-video-game-with-airendered-g-3b1136cb8e7c @/CDBiddulph/will-a-video-game-with-airendered-g-30dbd8e5eede @/CDBiddulph/will-a-video-game-with-airendered-g-2e37a190fefe (this market) @/CDBiddulph/will-a-video-game-with-airendered-g
opened a Ṁ500 YES at 25% order

Would a version of Nvidia’s DLSS where 50% of the frames are AI generated count?

@Putcallparity See the description: "it doesn't count if the AI is just starting with e.g. a 3D mesh rendering and postprocessing it to make it prettier or fill in frames. Specifically, I'd look for a system that generates visual elements during gameplay and simulates their motion entirely through ML rather than programmatically, functionally similar to OpenAI's Sora."

I think that last sentence isn't concrete enough to get my meaning across, I'll change it a bit

@CDBiddulph Ahhh, makes sense. I missed the “fill in frames part”. Appreciate you taking the time to clarify

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