Resolves YES if a dating app with >1 million monthly active users launches a feature where an LLM simulates a conversation between two people. If this doesn't happen on or before February 14, 2026, resolves NO.
A concrete form this might take is that two LLM "clones" of actual users, each trained on actual writing from one user, have a conversation. At the end, they decide how well they like each other, and the users get matched if both LLM clones had a positive response. (This is similar to the Black Mirror episode "Hang the DJ.")
The CEO of Grindr, George Arison, thinks this will be happening soon:
Kate Linebaugh: Can you have your Wingman out there chatting for you with other profile people who then their Wingman is chatting back?
George Arison: So I've certainly thought about that and I think that will be happening.
Kate Linebaugh: My God, AI is finding your partner for you?
George Arison: I think it's almost certainly going to happen. Forget about Grindr. If Grindr doesn't do it, somebody else will.
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Happy Valentine's Day! With the market closing today, 2.4% seems about right. No major dating app has announced an LLM conversation simulation feature. The closest things out there are AI-assisted icebreaker suggestions (Hinge, Bumble) and AI companion apps, but those are not the same as simulating conversations between two real users.
The concept itself is fascinating though. The idea of two LLM clones chatting before the real humans even meet is a genuinely novel product concept. The main barrier is probably user trust and the uncanny valley factor rather than technical feasibility. If it ever launches, it will probably come from a smaller app trying to differentiate rather than a major player like Tinder or Bumble, who would risk backlash from their existing user base.
With this closing in ~14 hours and no major dating app having publicly deployed LLM conversation simulation yet, this seems very likely to resolve NO. The closest thing is Bumble's AI features and Hinge's AI suggestions, but neither constitutes "simulating conversations." Short-term NO looks like the right play here.
@aristotle_135 Interesting, it looks like they've talked about it: https://slate.com/technology/2024/05/bumble-ai-dating-app-whitney-wolfe-herd.html
They haven't actually done it yet though