Will more than 50% of US population be convinced that free will is an illusion before year 2050?
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I will resolve this to positive if at any time before the end of 2050 a survey of US citizens, with a sample size that is descriptive of the whole population, will say that more than 50% of the population, agrees with the sentence "Free Will is an illusion"
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predictedNO 1y
@tailcalled This simply proves that determinism is not an hindrance to free will, it does not prove its existence, simply that some of the people that jump to the conclusion that free will is an illusion, do so fallaciously
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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