MANIFOLD
Will anyone get ICE'd while attending EAG SF 2026?
14
Ṁ100Ṁ432
Feb 17
8%
chance
11

By the end of March (Pacific time), will there be evidence judged credible by me, with help from any mods that might be willing to adjudicate, that any EAG attendee has had their conference experience disrupted by ICE, CBP, or whatever similar group under the US federal government?

By "EAG" I mean the Effective Altruism Global conference happening in San Francisco on February 13-15, 2026.

By "attendee" I mean anyone accepted at the conference, in any capacity. So anyone the organizers would allow at the venue, except third party contractors like caterers. Organizers, volunteers and speakers count.

By "conference experience" I mean the whole period:

  • for attendees traveling to the Bay Area for the conference, between the moment they enter the building (airport, port, bus/train station) at the start of their trip, or the actual vehicle if there is no such building, until the moment they leave the arrivals area of the airport/port/station in the first country after leaving US territory, or leave the building if traveling within the US;

  • for attendees already in the Bay Area before the conference, between the moment they leave their place of residence or accommodation for the first official conference event they're attending, until they arrive at the destination (home/party/spiritual retreat) immediately after the last official conference event they're attending.

In case of doubt (e.g. death during the conference), attendees will be deemed to have been supposed to attend both the first and last events in the official programme.

By "disruption" I mean any deviation from the usual experience a typical attendee with similar visa and travel conditions could have expected to face in 2016. Disruptions include, but are not limited to:

  • being detained for "additional questioning" at the port of entry in spite of proper documentation (funds, accommodation, intent to leave the US after the conference);

  • being denied entry in spite of proper documentation, particularly if deportation does not happen promptly or not to the country of origin/citizenship/residence;

  • being questioned or searched in ways that violate the U.S. Constitution (e.g. First and Fourth Amendments), as would be interpreted by at least one of the ACLU or the NRA;

  • being detained for any reason other than being denied entry due to insufficient documentation, pending prompt deportation to the country of origin/citizenship/residence;

  • being subject to threats of physical pain, suffering or harm while engaging in lawful conduct, or actually being subject to physical pain, suffering or harm, up to and including death.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy