Background

The United States and Canada maintain one of the world's strongest bilateral relationships, characterized by deep economic ties, military cooperation through NATO, and extensive cultural connections. While historical military plans like War Plan Red (1930) included theoretical scenarios for invasion, these were routine strategic exercises rather than actionable plans.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if:

• The United States military conducts an offensive military operation on Canadian soil with the intent to occupy territory, sieze resources, or overthrow the Canadian government

• The operation must be officially sanctioned by the U.S. government

This market will resolve NO if:

• No such invasion occurs before January 1, 2029

Edge cases:

• Joint military exercises or authorized U.S. military presence on Canadian soil will not count as an invasion

• If Canada invites U.S. military intervention (e.g., to help quell domestic unrest), this will not count as an invasion

• Limited border skirmishes or accidental incursions will not count as an invasion