Will California fire season be worse this year than last year?
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NO
Closes November 1
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predicted YES

Possible arbitrage opportunity? This other market seems to be asking the same question and very overvalued.

https://manifold.markets/NathanHelmBurger/will-the-acres-of-california-burned

bought Ṁ10 of NO

At this point in 2021 2,491,530 acres had burned. YTD in 2022, only 366,121 acres have burned. The fire season is almost over. This is extremely unlikely to resolve yes. https://www.fire.ca.gov/stats-events/

If acreage is the metric being used, I think this question should be resolved N/A and rephrased as "Will more land in California be burnt by wildfire this year than last year?" This is because acreage burned is only a proxy measure for fire season intensity. Other outcomes which fire management must consider are lives lost, property damage, strain on firefighting personnel and resources, etc. Furthermore, acreage burn in a given year is in large part a function of policy choices. Different state and federal agencies have different policies; in general, fires burning near the wildland-urban interface are extinguished quickly and those further away are usually allowed to burn. Most fires could be put out immediately if it was standing policy to do so, but this would exacerbate long-term problems. I've done a bunch of research on this topic; including speaking to fire chiefs. Good sources for further reading include https://the-lookout.org and Nintil's lit review https://nintil.com/wildfires-california/
I was looking at fire.ca.gov - so that will. be the reference. For 2021 2,568,948 acres were burned.
bought Ṁ10 of NO
For anyone that wants to see the exact page: https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2021/
Data source for total acreage? Are you going to analyze MODIS data, rely on Wikipedia to be updated, or something else?
let's go with total acreage burned as the metric
bought Ṁ15 of YES
Resolve by total acreage burned? Total value of property damage?

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