Will there be more recorded forest fires in the US and Canada in 2024 than 2023?
Will there be more recorded forest fires in the US and Canada in 2024 than 2023?
25
1kṀ2591Oct 16
52%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Canada experience more than 5 million hectares burned by EOY 2025?
68% chance
Will total US tree cover loss (in Mha) be higher in 2026 than 2024?
55% chance
Conditional on Trump elected, will there be more wildfire acreage burnt in California in 2024-2028 than in 2020-2024?
68% chance
Will there be more deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon in 2025 than in 2024?
44% chance
Will the tonnes of biomass burned in forest fires increase?
79% chance
Will tree cover in the United States increase between EOY 2023 and 2030?
82% chance
Will non-wildfire US forest cover loss (in Mha) be higher in Trump's second term (2025-2028) than during Biden's term?
52% chance
Will there be another record setting deadliest natural disaster in the United States before the end of 2040?
75% chance