Will the acres of California burned by fire this year exceed that of last year?

182Ṁ662

resolved Dec 18

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Year Fires Acres Hectares Ref 2000 7,622 295,026 119,393 [25] 2001 9,458 329,126 133,193 [26] 2002 8,328 969,890 392,500 [27][28] 2003 9,116 1,020,460 412,970 [29][30][31] 2004 8,415 264,988 107,237 [32][33] 2005 7,162 222,538 90,058 [34][35] 2006 8,202 736,022 297,858 [36][37] 2007 9,093 1,520,362 615,269 [25][38] 2008 6,255 1,593,690 644,940 [25] 2009 9,159 422,147 170,837 [39][40] 2010 6,554 109,529 44,325 [41] 2011 7,989 168,545 68,208 [42][43] 2012 7,950 869,599 351,914 [44] 2013 9,907 601,635 243,473 [45][46] 2014 7,865 625,540 253,150 [47][48] 2015 8,745 893,362 361,531 [49] 2016 6,986 669,534 270,951 [50][51] 2017 9,560 1,548,429 626,627 [52][53] 2018 8,527 1,975,086 799,289 [54][55] 2019 7,860 259,823 105,147 [56] 2020 9,639 4,397,809 1,779,730 [57] 2021 8,835 2,568,948 1,039,616 [58] Average 8,329 1,002,822 405,828

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This market still seems to be overvalued.

See this related market

https://manifold.markets/BruceGrugett/will-california-fire-season-be-wors

which looks like it's going to resolve on exactly the same statistic (number of acres burned) from exactly the same source (CAL FIRE, the ultimate source of the Wikipedia numbers).

See comments on the related market: to date this year's fire season was much much less bad than last year, and the fire season is basically over. (I haven't checked this year's weather but fall in California brings lower temperatures and rains, both of which tend to damp fires.)