Will China meet or exceed its 5% GDP growth target this year? (according to The Economist data)
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resolved Mar 8
Resolved
YES

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@Bruce54df please clarify the reason that you are betting this market down. It is my belief that it should have already resolved YES

The Economist reported that China met 5% last year. They also reported on scepticism that that this number is real. But they have reported it.

I think, for context, it's important to note that Bruce the creator, accepted the Economist's previous reporting of numbers around 5%. It's also very reasonable to be sceptical about those figures.

Unless there is a new report before market close that explicitly lowers the number The Economists believes to be true, I expect this to resolve YES

sold Ṁ205 YES

I would like to clarify to all traders that when I wrote this I didn't realise Bruce is the one to have bet it down so low ☹️

"At a Washington forum last month, a prominent Chinese economist raised doubts about Beijing’s economic management and said China’s economy might have grown at less than half the roughly 5% pace flaunted by authorities.

When Xi Jinping found out, he was furious.

According to people familiar with the matter, the Chinese leader ordered an investigation of Gao Shanwen, chief economist at state-owned SDIC Securities, who has frequently advised the government on economic and financial policies. Xi then ordered authorities to discipline him.

Two comments that Gao made at the forum, hosted jointly by the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a Chinese think tank, angered Xi, the people said. 

One questioned the reliability of Chinese growth data. “We do not know the true number of China’s real growth figure,” Gao said at the Dec. 12 event, whose webcast is available on the Peterson Institute’s website and on YouTube. “My own speculation is that in the past two to three years, the real [gross domestic product growth] number on average might be around 2% even though the official number is close to 5%.” WSJ, Jan 8, 2025

Oct 19, 2024 edition of The Economist reports China GDP at 4.7% for Q2 (YOY). And forecasts 4.7% for full year 2024.

According to whose numbers or reporting?

@JoshuaWilkes Will be resolved by reference to The Economist which reports weekly Economic and financial indicators. For 2023, The Economist reports China GDP at 5.2% for 2023.

@Bruce54df thank you~

Strongly suggest to put this is the description!

@JoshuaWilkes Done. Thanks

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