Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to the measured effect size (Cohen's d) of Orexin-A on catch-up sleep following a night where subjects have had five hours of sleep. The effect size will be determined by comparing sleep duration (measured using total sleep duration from a Fitbit Inspire 3). in the night following receiving Orexin-A and receiving placebo, both under conditions of five hours of sleep, in a self-blinded experiment with three participants, 15 samples per participant.

The effect size will be Cohen's d for total sleep duration comparing post-placebo sleep and post-Orexin-A sleep.

Higher effect sizes mean shorter sleep durations.

I.e. if we measure a reduction in total sleep duration for Orexin-A, that could be e.g. an effect size of 0.4.

Background

Orexin-A (also known as hypocretin-1) is a neuropeptide that plays a key role in regulating wakefulness, arousal, and attention. It is produced by neurons in the hypothalamus and acts on orexin receptors throughout the brain.

Orexin-A has been studied for its potential to counteract the effects of sleep deprivation on cognitive performance. It promotes wakefulness by activating arousal-promoting brain regions and modulating neurotransmitter systems involved in attention and alertness.

Five hours of sleep represents a mild form of sleep restriction compared to the recommended 7-9 hours for adults, which typically results in some cognitive impairment. Our hope is that Orexin-A reduces the amount of catch-up sleep in the night following sleep deprivation and subsequent administration.

Considerations

• The effect of Orexin-A specifically on reducing sleep need has not been extensively studied in humans.

• Update 2026-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution timeline extended to late February due to ongoing data collection. One collaborator has one remaining experimental block (starting Saturday), and another collaborator has two remaining blocks to complete.