Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to the measured effect size (Cohen's d) of Orexin-A on catch-up sleep following a night where subjects have had five hours of sleep. The effect size will be determined by comparing sleep duration (measured using total sleep duration from a Fitbit Inspire 3). in the night following receiving Orexin-A and receiving placebo, both under conditions of five hours of sleep, in a self-blinded experiment with three participants, 15 samples per participant.
The effect size will be Cohen's d for total sleep duration comparing post-placebo sleep and post-Orexin-A sleep.
Higher effect sizes mean shorter sleep durations.
I.e. if we measure a reduction in total sleep duration for Orexin-A, that could be e.g. an effect size of 0.4.
Background
Orexin-A (also known as hypocretin-1) is a neuropeptide that plays a key role in regulating wakefulness, arousal, and attention. It is produced by neurons in the hypothalamus and acts on orexin receptors throughout the brain.
Orexin-A has been studied for its potential to counteract the effects of sleep deprivation on cognitive performance. It promotes wakefulness by activating arousal-promoting brain regions and modulating neurotransmitter systems involved in attention and alertness.
Five hours of sleep represents a mild form of sleep restriction compared to the recommended 7-9 hours for adults, which typically results in some cognitive impairment. Our hope is that Orexin-A reduces the amount of catch-up sleep in the night following sleep deprivation and subsequent administration.
Considerations
The effect of Orexin-A specifically on reducing sleep need has not been extensively studied in humans.
Update 2026-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution timeline extended to late February due to ongoing data collection. One collaborator has one remaining experimental block (starting Saturday), and another collaborator has two remaining blocks to complete.
Update 2026-03-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The experiment has concluded with the following results:
Cohen's d: -0.212, p=0.542
Orexin-A sleep duration: 8.60 ± 1.91 hrs (n=17)
Placebo sleep duration: 8.27 ± 1.05 hrs (n=17)
Data collection had issues resulting in a smaller sample size than planned (n=17 instead of 15 per participant × 3 participants)
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@Velaris Yeah, I hated sleeping five hours, which is why our follow-up experiment will not include any sleep deprivation
.
Cohen's d: -0.212, p=0.542,
Orexin-A sleep duration (hrs): 8.60 ± 1.91 (n=17)
Placebo sleep duration (hrs): 8.27 ± 1.05 (n=17)
We had some very annoying issues with data collection, to be detailed in the upcoming post. Hence the small n.
@prismatic Extending, I have one more block (will do from Saturday onwards), one collaborator has two more. Extending to resolve late February. Sorry for it taking so long.