At 23:59 BRT on Aug 4, 2026, take the most recently published national voting-intention polls (first-round, President) from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ipec, AtlasIntel, Paraná Pesquisas, PoderData, and Ipespe.

Only polls published within the last 15 days (i.e., Jul 20–Aug 4, 2026, inclusive) are eligible.

Compute each candidate’s simple average (%) across the eligible polls (using the published topline national %). The market resolves to the candidate with the highest average.

If tied, resolve to whoever is higher in the most recent eligible poll (then the next most recent, etc.) until the tie breaks.