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MANIFOLD
Will Canada raise its 2027 international-student arrivals target above 150,000 by December 31, 2026?
1
Ṁ1kṀ450
Dec 30
32%
chance

This market resolves YES if, by 11:59 pm ET on December 31, 2026, the Government of Canada publicly releases an official immigration levels plan, ministerial statement, or equivalent IRCC policy document that sets the target number of new international-student arrivals for calendar year 2027 above 150,000.

This market resolves NO if, by that time, no such official federal document sets the 2027 target above 150,000.

For this market:

  • Only federal government announcements count.

  • Draft leaks, media reports, stakeholder rumours, and provincial requests do not count unless later confirmed in an official federal document by the deadline.

  • A mere administrative relaxation that does not increase the 2027 target above 150,000 does not count as YES.

  • If the government replaces the numerical target with a formally adopted framework that is clearly less restrictive and explicitly authorizes a higher number than 150,000 for 2027, that counts as YES.

  • If the government abolishes the target without replacing it with any explicit higher 2027 number, resolve N/A.

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