I currently own 18,973 NO shares on whether Crystal Ballin' releases an episode before September. However, despite cohosting the "competing" Market Manipulation Podcast, I am excited about Manifold media in all forms, and think Crystal Ballin' too has the potential to be a great podcast, adding insight, value, and fun to the world of Manifold and forecasting. Allegedly the first episode will have a special guest, and maybe it'll also have interesting concepts or games or segments.
Therefore, if the first episode of Crystal Ballin' is sufficiently good, I'll feel like my NO bets were "put to good use sponsoring the podcast". However, if it's underwhelming or boring, I'll likely feel annoyed, since BTE (one of the cohosts) holds a large amount of YES on the market.
Ultimately, the resolution of this market will be based on my personal mental state after listening to the podcast, and may be YES, 75%, 50%, 25%, or NO.
If Crystal Ballin's trend of being vaporware continues and no episode materializes by September, this market will resolve N/A.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
1,000
3.00@BTE @MichaelWheatley I enjoyed the episode! It certainly felt like a legit podcast with a friendly vibe, and it was fun to hear some of the stories behind Botlab as well as just your guys’ perspectives on the Manifold ecosystem. I’d love for Crystal Ballin’ to be a regular thing that can react to news and stuff! Especially since I doubt I’ll have much time for MMP in the near future - though I’d be happy to be a guest on CB :)
As far as disappointments: the mana loss doesn’t bother me so much, but this episode does seem a bit rushed, which is a shame since you had like six months. In particular, there were some pauses and repeated words where it’d have been nice for them to be edited out. One more pass of editing would’ve done wonders! Also, of course, the snub of @Wobbles is a major loss for the podcast, and I think he should be a cohost in the future.
Overall though, I think this is a nice narrative step in the MMP vs CB saga, and I hope we can be mutually beneficial in the future! (In particular, I hope you can release episodes without me giving you 10k of mana…)
PS: Crystal Ballin’ was always a bit of an oddball name - maybe the Extreme Market Manipulation Podcast name change is called for…