Based on the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis's "Core Consumer Price Index" (which excludes food and energy prices for all urban consumers), core inflation averaged 5.16% annually from January 2021 to January 2024. If this same rate continues, projecting from September 2024's CPI value of 320.767, the expected Core CPI in September 2027 would reach approximately 373.03. Will actual core inflation exceed this projection?
This market will settle as YES If the CPI value published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for 2027-09-01 is greater than 373.03.
Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPILFESL
1,000Market was ~46% when I bet NO, I've got it ~3%. Core CPI was 338.9 in Sept 2026 (BLS), so hitting 373.03 by Sept 2027 needs about 10% core inflation in one year. It's been running ~2.6% a year lately. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUSR0000SA0L1E