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MANIFOLD
Will October 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
0
Ṁ100
Nov 10
53%
chance

This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for October 2026 reports that the all-items Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), seasonally adjusted, rose at least 0.3% from September 2026 to October 2026. Resolve NO if the initial BLS release reports a seasonally adjusted all-items CPI-U month-over-month change of 0.2% or lower, including 0.0% or a decline. Use the official BLS CPI news release or its tables for October 2026 as the primary source. Do not use core CPI, year-over-year CPI, PCE, PPI, non-seasonally-adjusted monthly change, real earnings, or later annual revisions. If BLS corrects the initial October 2026 CPI release before this market is resolved, use the corrected BLS release. Scheduled source context: BLS calendar lists Consumer Price Index, October 2026, at 08:30 AM Eastern on November 10, 2026; the calendar note says all times are Eastern Time. The market closes one minute before the scheduled 08:30 ET release time. Creation source-check snapshot: {"checked_at": "2026-06-23T00:11:37Z", "local_fetch_checks": {"bls_cpi_home": {"error": "HTTPError: HTTP Error 403: Forbidden", "ok": false, "url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/"}, "bls_current_cpi_release": {"error": "HTTPError: HTTP Error 403: Forbidden", "ok": false, "url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm"}, "bls_november_2026_schedule": {"error": "HTTPError: HTTP Error 403: Forbidden", "ok": false, "url": "https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/11_sched.htm"}}, "note": "BLS schedule was browser-verified before script creation. If raw local BLS fetches are blocked, use browser/web verification before --create.", "official_browser_verified_context": "BLS calendar lists Consumer Price Index, October 2026, at 08:30 AM Eastern on November 10, 2026; the calendar note says all times are Eastern Time."}. Related non-duplicates: - October 2026 PPI final demand markets differ because this market uses all-items CPI-U. - September 2026 CPI and PCE markets differ by reference month and/or inflation index. - Core CPI markets differ because this market uses headline/all-items CPI-U. - Year-over-year inflation markets differ because this market uses seasonally adjusted month-over-month change. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS November 2026 release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/11_sched.htm - BLS CPI program page: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/ - BLS current CPI release surface: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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