This question resolves YES if the Busy Beaver Challenge has been completed by the close date, as determined by some page on the bbchallenge.org website indicating that all 5-state Turing Machines have been decided. An exception is that if all machines are decided, but the Busy Beaver is still not known (due to multiple machines being known to halt but it being unclear which runs longest), that will not be enough to resolve the market YES.

Close date updated to 2024-06-01 11:59 pm

Oct 3, 3:12pm: In the interest of keeping the title in line with the description in the scenario where the above website goes defunct, I'll add another possibility for YES resolution: If Scott Aaronson makes a public statement that the 5-state Busy Beaver is known, then I will accept that as a Yes.