Will rw_search be able to replace >50% of mathlib proofs by 2025-11-26?
Basic
9
Ṁ2802025
19%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Sometime around the resolution date, I will write a script that samples random tactic-mode lemmas from mathlib, and replaces the proof of those lemmas with an invocation of rw_search.
Resolves YES if rw_search successfully proves >50% of the lemmas.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >30% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2026?
28% chance
Will aesop be able to replace >50% of mathlib proofs by 2025-11-26?
40% chance
Will any AI be able to explain formal language proofs to >=50% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?
60% chance
Will the majority of mathematicians rely on formal computer proof assistants before the end of 2040?
69% chance
In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)
65% chance
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
32% chance
Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2029-05-01?
65% chance
Will reinforcement learning overtake LMs on math before 2028?
63% chance
Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?
62% chance
Will ZFC no longer be the standard foundation for mathematics by 2050?
33% chance