Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR? | Manifold

Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR?

80

1kṀ8798

2029

20%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

At the end of 2029, I will make an assessment of the total number of 4-wheel cars in the US, whether they be owned or leased by individuals, or whether they are still parts of experimental fleets from self-driving car companies. I will try to determine the total number of such cars that use some form of LIDAR, and if more than half do, this resolves YES. Otherwise, it resolves NO.

Update for detail: What I am going for here is the sort of vehicles that Tesla, Waymo, Cruise etc. are making. Vehicles that are ostensibly designed to drive themselves (even if in terms of software, they might not be able to do that yet with 100% reliability). In terms of the level system, this maps on to about L3 and above.

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