
Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR?
80
1kṀ87982029
20%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
At the end of 2029, I will make an assessment of the total number of 4-wheel cars in the US, whether they be owned or leased by individuals, or whether they are still parts of experimental fleets from self-driving car companies. I will try to determine the total number of such cars that use some form of LIDAR, and if more than half do, this resolves YES. Otherwise, it resolves NO.
Update for detail: What I am going for here is the sort of vehicles that Tesla, Waymo, Cruise etc. are making. Vehicles that are ostensibly designed to drive themselves (even if in terms of software, they might not be able to do that yet with 100% reliability). In terms of the level system, this maps on to about L3 and above.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will self-driving cars be accessible in London to a general member of the public by 2028?
38% chance
Will most Tesla-owned robotaxis use Lidar, at launch?
3% chance
Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
83% chance
Will I have easy access to a long-distance self-driving car by the end of 2028?
35% chance
Who will be the largest players in self-driving in 2030?
Will more than 50% of cars sold in 2030 in the US have self driving capabilities (SAE level 3)?
45% chance
Full self driving cars will be legal with no need for human interaction in any country by the end of 2025?
15% chance
Will there be a race of commercial self-driving cars on a closed race track by end of 2029.
61% chance
Will self-driving cars become the primary mode of transportation in major US cities by 2030?
18% chance
Will a self driving car company operate in winter in a city that regularly gets snow by the end of 2025?
38% chance