Will intersections where self-driving cars can ignore traffic signals exist in the US by end of 2030?
18
50
390
2031
20%
chance

Inspired by this GCP Grey video. Resolves YES if, by the close date, there are at least two intersections in the United States where it regularly happens that in the space of 12 seconds, at least 4 self-driving cars can and do legally go straight through the intersection in alternating order:

  1. First one car along one street,

  2. then another car along the other street,

  3. then another car along the first street again,

  4. then another car along the second again.

Without slowing down to less than half of their typical driving speed on the rest of the street.

The cars must be carrying regular people trying to get somewhere, not just people who are trying to drive in self-driving cars purely of itself.

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There is 0% chance of this happening, at any rate by 2030.